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| Thread: Is the American dream over? |  This thread is pages long: 1 2 3 · «PREV / NEXT» |
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DoddTheSlayer
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posted January 28, 2005 07:21 PM |
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RedSox. You speak as though dwindling oil supplies is just a US crisis. It is a global crisis and to say that you are not worried for another 50 years is like sticking two fingers up to the rest of the world. It has just struck me from reading through some of the posts here and some articles on the net that current estimates are based on US needs only. Remember that to supply the world with its current demand we are having to produce 80m barrels of oil per DAY.
What i am reading about Alaskan oil does not suggest that this can be maintained for another 50 years.
Please America when you are given these estimates ranging from 30-50 years ask yourselves the the question. Are these econmists talking about US or global demands for oil.
Just for the record take a look at this article . http://www.commondreams.org/views/031600-101.htm
6 months to 1 years supply just for one nation alone is the estimate that is being given here.
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Svarog
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posted January 29, 2005 04:29 AM |
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Dod, you're talking to an American about global worries?! LOL 
Defreni, common logic dictates that as the oil reserves start to go down, the effectiveness of exploitation will also go down. However, I wouldn’t guess the numbers (50% or so); it’s the experts work.
I don’t know if we talk here only about oil, or other fossil fuels, such as natural gas and coal, which constitute a large bulk of energy reserves also. If oil runs out soon (and it will), we’ll still have enough of these nasty things to keep polluting the world undisturbed for a longer time. And that’s maybe even more dangerous than not using them (cos the warming and all that, u know). But, when they too disappear, I don’t think the energy transition can be made so smoothly, as Consis optimistically (as always  ) predicts.
Thing is, energy is not the problem. Nuclear energy is an excellent and efficient replacement (the meltdown fear is rubbish), and it can be used in industry and households. Fuel on the other hand could be a problem. The entire transportation system could be paralized, because naturally you cant have a nuclear plant in your car, and you cant plug in your car in an electric circuit. What furture scientists could do is to focus efforts on developing some kind of high-energy battery, if we want our cars to remain off the leash, as we know them.
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DoddTheSlayer
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posted January 29, 2005 08:03 PM |
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Yes Nuclear power is probably the next best thing outside of fossil fuels, but the experts agree that it will not yield the same power output.
Which ever way you look at it Plane earth cannot continue to consume at its current rate which means that the economy cannot grow so we will all have to make do with less. Oil is the greatest empire the world has ever seen. You could say that as a civilization we have been spoilt.
Its kind of like when somebody gets a new job with really high pay and they raise their standard of living to match that new income. Then when they lose the job they cannot keep up their new car, house payments so the only option is to sell up and take accept a reduced standard of living. This is what mankind faces, let me repeat, not when oil and natural gas run out, but when we reach that prodction peak, and by the way natural is at the same point as oil at this stage with production being at the point of decline.
Sorry to sound like a broken record but this distinction between peaking and running out is very important.
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Svarog
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posted January 30, 2005 01:58 AM |
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You cant talk about reaching "peak of production" when over half of the world population lives in poor conditions.
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DoddTheSlayer
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posted January 30, 2005 02:12 AM |
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It doesnt matter how many countries are living in poor conditions. The rate at which oil can be extracted from the ground has to do with physics not economics.
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Svarog
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posted January 30, 2005 02:25 AM |
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Quote:
Which ever way you look at it Plane earth cannot continue to consume at its current rate which means that the economy cannot grow so we will all have to make do with less.
Well, this sentence contradicts what you now said, and directly addresses economics.
This sentence is absolutely incorrect, as the consuption maybe has reached its peak in richest countries, but the poorest havent neither reached an avarage levels of both prodution and consumption.
And if its physics you're talking about, then you should know that physics already has the answer for avoiding "production peak". It's called nuclear physics.
Production peak, as it is now and most likely until the very distant future, will have nothing to do with technological limitations, and all to do economic issues.
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DoddTheSlayer
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posted January 30, 2005 02:56 AM |
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Fair enough. If poorer countries that are not consuming at the rate of richer countries and have also not peaked
then what i have said would not hold true for those nations.
Do you think that such nations could be vulnerable to aggressors in a war for resourses though.
Actually while i think of it Which poorer countries are producing oil?
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Svarog
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posted January 30, 2005 03:13 AM |
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Edited By: Svarog on 29 Jan 2005
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Again, you need to stop looking at the peak as one big oil fountain. As science has its say, they are independent, cos you can replace the oil of the fountain with uranium, or whatever else of unlimited supply.
Poorer countries may not have oil/gas (which in fact they have, if you take a look at the Caspian region, the Middle East etc.; as you see, I see "poorer" in terms of "non-Western"), but they have the productive capacity for other goods, which have a worth that in todays world of international trade, thank god, can be turned into anything you want.
If I'm going with the fountain analogy all the way, then the peak wouldnt be dependant of the material which flows, but of the labour power pumping the liquid up.
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The meek shall inherit the earth, but NOT its mineral rights.
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Shiva
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posted January 30, 2005 12:49 PM |
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There are good things about high oil prices. It spurs
research into alternative energy sources. There are things
coming on stream already. The Toyoto Prius is an example
of a hybrid (electris/gas) that is succesful. Demand is
high for that car.
I saw a show yesterday on a power station in Scotland
that generated electricity from ocean tides. Wind is
being used more and more. Of course, it will take a
huge shift in the whole energy generating paradigm to
make an impact, but the more it is needed, the more it will
happen.
As to whether this is the end of the American era,
I think political mis-steps are more likely to cause its
downfall. If there is a lack of energy, the whole world
will suffer as well, China will not be able to develop,
Europe will slide even worse, Japan will go down fast
with no native supplies at all.
In fact, Canada has in the tar sands reserves bigger than
Saudi Arabia. As the oil price rises, that becomes more
viable to extract.
So the worlds not coming to an end just yet...maybe next
century ..
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Wolfman
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posted January 30, 2005 04:44 PM |
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What does oil have to do with the American dream exactly? I was under the impression that the "American Dream" ment working hard to get ahead. Striving for the top and setting goals to get there. I don't think this American dream is over at all.
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Shiva
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posted January 30, 2005 07:47 PM |
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I guess the American Dream could function without oil.
Get a horse?
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Wolfman
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posted January 30, 2005 08:39 PM |
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What does oil have to do with the American dream?
Having a horse would work for me. 
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terje_the_ma...
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posted January 31, 2005 02:22 AM |
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Defreni:
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PS: One said that hydro electric power was inefficient and environmentally bad, this is simply not true. If you doubt me, look at Sweden and Norway, they seem to be doing just fine.
I belive the inefficient power scource was "hydrogen", not "hydro electric power" .
But I'm glad that you brought up hydro power. It's often said to be the purest and least polluting power scource in the world. Which, of course, isn't true.
When you make a hydro plant, you have to take the water, right? And you have to make a reservoir to store this water until it's ready to be let into the power plant. Now, if you take a relatively large river, and puts into a pipe, and leads it to the power plant, you may think: "Hey, this doesn't pollute; I see no smoke, this geigermeter shows no unnatural high radiation levels, and there's no poison running into any water!"
But the pollution of hydro power comes from what the removal of a whole friggin' river does to the ecosystems of the area around the river. It could also hurt underground water reservoirs. So hydro power isn't as harmless as it seems...
Besides, hydro power relies on height differences and a good and heavy rainfall pattern. Not all countries have this...
Svarog:
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Fuel on the other hand could be a problem. The entire transportation system could be paralized, because naturally you cant have a nuclear plant in your car, and you cant plug in your car in an electric circuit. What furture scientists could do is to focus efforts on developing some kind of high-energy battery, if we want our cars to remain off the leash, as we know them.
Collective transportation must be the answer; trains and trams can get electricity through power lines stretched above their tracks, and a similar system might in time be developed for buses, and maybe even cars. The electricity is, as you said, not a problem, if we can build secure nuclear plants (secure nuclear plant=one that isn't situated in Eastern Europe ).
Dodd:
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Actually while i think of it Which poorer countries are producing oil?
Saudi Arabia - The upper classes and the royal family live like kings (), true, but the rest of the population lives in rather strained conditions, since their rulers prefer to use the money they earn from selling oil on gold covered sofas instead of providing their sujects with, well, what we Western people considers to be basic.
Venezuela - The people who ruled Venezuela before the Bolivarian Revolution did so, iIrc, on a rather exploiting manner (Defreni: I know this is your area of expertise, so to say, so please correct me if I'm wrong): The people who worked in the oil sector were paid good money, while the rest of the people were paid close to nothing. Chavez has improved this, I think, and started educating his people (that's why the Americans hate him, lol ), but most Venezuelan people are still poor.
Nigeria - The semi-fascist dictators of Nigeria doesn't share much of their wealth with their people.
Azerbaijan - I don't think this country is much worse off than your average post-Soviet state, but this country has a leader who was elected in a way that more than anything resembled the election frauds in Ukraine this autumn. The difference being, of course, that Azerbaijan has oil, and thus the "civilized" leaders of the Western world didn't dare to protest, since such an action could cost them valuable goodwill from the regime; goodwil they need to get contracts for oil drilling in the Caspian Sea.
Lybia? - With this rather closed country, it's hard to tell the living conditions of the people. But since all I've seen of Libya consists of grandiose presidential palaces, I somehow doubt that the oil incomes of Libya is used for the good of the people...
Iran? - Again, as with Libya, it's hard to tell; this being a country mainly closed to Western media. But what I've seen from Iran outside of Teheran, doesn't inspire trust in Iranian leadership...
Russia - No one with their wits about them would call Russia a rich country. The oligarchs are rich, and the mafia, but not many more...
Shiva:
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I saw a show yesterday on a power station in Scotland that generated electricity from ocean tides.
There are maybe 20-50 places in the world fit for tidal wave harnessing power plants, and the construction of such power plants is very costly.
Quote:
Wind is being used more and more.
Yes, but the construction of wind mill parks is also expensive, and wind mill parks require a special terrain to work perfectly.
Wolfman:
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What does oil have to do with the American dream?
I guess this is based on the somewhat stereotypical notion that the "American Dream" is to have two cars, and that this "dream" (nightmare for us environmentalists) is wholly dependent on the way the world economy is going (globalization and all that...), and the one factor which as the biggest impact on the world economy is the price on oil. As supply of this commodity sinks, prices will soar.
Thus is the "American Dream" threatened by the end of the world's oil reserves...
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"Sometimes I think everyone's just pretending to be brave, and none of us really are. Maybe pretending to be brave is how you get brave, I don't know."
- Grenn, A Storm of Swords.
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Svarog
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posted January 31, 2005 04:52 AM |
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Quote:
But the pollution of hydro power comes from what the removal of a whole friggin' river does to the ecosystems of the area around the river.
But we dont remove the river (at least here). We only temprarily terminate it, so to say, until a hole is filled, and then the river resumes flowing again on the other side of the dam.
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The meek shall inherit the earth, but NOT its mineral rights.
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Wolfman
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posted January 31, 2005 04:13 PM |
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Quote:
I guess this is based on the somewhat stereotypical notion that the "American Dream" is to have two cars, and that this "dream" (nightmare for us environmentalists) is wholly dependent on the way the world economy is going (globalization and all that...), and the one factor which as the biggest impact on the world economy is the price on oil. As supply of this commodity sinks, prices will soar.
Thus is the "American Dream" threatened by the end of the world's oil reserves...
I was always under the impression that the American dream was to be successful. That doesn’t mean owning two cars. The American dream isn’t to pollute the world, that’s kind of a ridiculous stereotype. The American dream is to be successful. If owning a small hotel in Maine is what you want to do and makes you happy, then I would say you are living the American dream. If owning two cars means success to you, then I would have to agree with you, but that doesn’t mean success to me.
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Pitsu
Adventuring Hero
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posted January 31, 2005 05:24 PM |
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But we dont remove the river (at least here). We only temprarily terminate it, so to say, until a hole is filled, and then the river resumes flowing again on the other side of the dam.
Sounds like: But we don't change your body. We only temporary throttle your neck, so to say, until you become less disturbing and then we let the air and blood to flow again as they wish.
By the way, how about spawing salmons who need to move upstream and cross the dam? And could the changes in water levels and streem velocity (related to muddity) change the ecosystem?
cheers!
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terje_the_ma...
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posted January 31, 2005 11:22 PM |
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Good point, Pitsu...
Svarog:
Quote:
Quote:
But the pollution of hydro power comes from what the removal of a whole friggin' river does to the ecosystems of the area around the river.
But we dont remove the river (at least here). We only temprarily terminate it, so to say, until a hole is filled, and then the river resumes flowing again on the other side of the dam.
I've passed many "regulated rivers" (in the county I used to live in, 80% of the rain that falls is used for the production of electricity), as we call them in Norway, and the water levels in these are not exactly natural, to say the least.
Wolfman:
Quote:
I was always under the impression that the American dream was to be successful. That doesn’t mean owning two cars. The American dream isn’t to pollute the world, that’s kind of a ridiculous stereotype. The American dream is to be successful. If owning a small hotel in Maine is what you want to do and makes you happy, then I would say you are living the American dream. If owning two cars means success to you, then I would have to agree with you, but that doesn’t mean success to me.
Not to me either, but like I said, it's the typical cliché in Europe (and maybe elsewhere) that the American Dream is this two-cars-in-the-suburs thing...
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"Sometimes I think everyone's just pretending to be brave, and none of us really are. Maybe pretending to be brave is how you get brave, I don't know."
- Grenn, A Storm of Swords.
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DoddTheSlayer
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posted February 01, 2005 12:47 AM |
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Well as i understand it was The 2 cars and a family along with the everyone can make it idea was the original post war American dream. Just after the war there was a massive housing programme for 2700000 new homes by the end of 1947 to house as many war vets as possible. It wasnt the True American dream of everyone being included but an early post war idea from which the bigger idea came.
So its not whether you have 2 cars or this or that but the idea that anyone has the same opportunities to aquire what they want out of life.
I am not an American so please those of you who are please feel free to flame me if i am way off the mark with this analasis.
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Svarog
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posted February 01, 2005 04:09 AM |
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Quote:
Sounds like: But we don't change your body. We only temporary throttle your neck, so to say, until you become less disturbing and then we let the air and blood to flow again as they wish.
Well yeah. If you think about it, a true surgical intervention.
Quote:
By the way, how about spawing salmons who need to move upstream and cross the dam? And could the changes in water levels and streem velocity (related to muddity) change the ecosystem?
In Macedonia, i've never heard us having problems with the ecosystems caused by the hydroplants. But we also have a lot of unused hydropotential, so maybe it's only the most suitable rivers that have been dammed.
As for the salmons, I have an excellent example. Not quite a salmon, but a fish nonetheless. It's about the Ohrid eel (a snake-like fish), an endemic spicimen which lives only in Ohrid Lake, one of the oldest lakes in Europe. The stupid fish migrate each year all the way to the Altantic, where they mate, nest and die, and then the tiny eels go back to the lake to live till their migration and death (or was it the other way around, in macedonia they have the sex, and raise family in the atlantic, i'm not sure). Really pointless, but what do I know. Problem is, as with any lake, it's landlocked, but luckily it's connected with the Mediterranean with a river which flows out of the lake, so the eellings swim every year upstream and downstream the river guided by their patriotic feeling. The river (Drim) is dammed on several places, but there are also some kind of systems set up in order to allow the patriotic fish waste their lifes travleing. So there, solution for everything.
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Consis
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posted February 01, 2005 05:10 AM |
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Edited By: Consis on 31 Jan 2005
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Uhm...
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The stupid fish migrate each year all the way to the Altantic, where they mate, nest and die, and then the tiny eels go back to the lake to live till their migration and death.
Sounds like a good romance novel. And will someone please explain to me what a 'patriotic fish' is? Is that when the fish write a document declaring rights of all cold-blooded aquatic-gilled animals; but then after the fish have declared said inalienable rights they swim upstream to overthrow the king of all fish in a bloody coup? Or perhaps they simply declare themselves the caviar of God before proceeding to wage war on the fish in the middle-eastern hemisphere of world's oceans. "May God bless the fish in my country".
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