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artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
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posted September 21, 2015 12:37 AM |
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Are you pretty? This is my occasion. - Ghost
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fred79
Disgraceful
Undefeatable Hero
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posted September 21, 2015 12:47 AM |
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/somewhat off-topic:
i'm sure there's lots of graphs out there displaying varying info, depending on the source. i'd rather base my beliefs on what i experience with my 5 senses, and my awareness/experiences with human nature. simple math speaks for itself, and i'll believe an outside source, when i see that it backs up what i see in real life. i can make and post a graph in under 10 minutes, and it doesn't mean anything whatsoever. the future isn't so intricate, that it can't be reduced to simple math, regarding population growth. there will have to be some great change, for there to be any drop-off in the current population-growth climate. something drastic enough that everyone will be able to notice. i don't forsee anything getting people out of their own little bubbles anytime soon. they're just not paying attention.
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artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
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posted September 21, 2015 02:24 AM |
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That was in response to blizz, fred. The future population is an estimate, of course. But millions of graphs out there showing how population started to multiply since 19th century and even more so in the 20th all show the same thing, I'm sure they are pretty accurate.
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Are you pretty? This is my occasion. - Ghost
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fred79
Disgraceful
Undefeatable Hero
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posted September 21, 2015 07:42 AM |
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/off-topic:
i know it was a response to blizz; i was just stating that a graph doesn't have an impact on my own opinion, and clarifying why. to me, it doesn't matter if a graph either backs up or denys what i already see and hear. i wasn't trying to argue against you; just stating my stance on graphs, and other possibly persuasive types of information that may or may not contradict one's opinion. sorry if i mislead you otherwise. 
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artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
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posted September 21, 2015 08:38 AM |
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So, if you want to have an idea of population growth between, say, 1850 and 2015, what do you do, hop on that time machine across the world and start counting with your fingers? 
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Are you pretty? This is my occasion. - Ghost
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alcibiades
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
of Gold Dragons
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posted September 21, 2015 09:08 AM |
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Haven't followed the whole discussion here in detail, but the population growth doesn't tell the whole story in itself, does it?
In terms of global warming, the fact that greenhouse gases helps keep our atmosphere warmer is an undistputable fact. Without the greenhouse effect, Earth would be about 30 degree celsius cooler than it is, which would make life impossible.
The question is whether human-induced outlet of gases, specifically carbondioxide, is shifting this atmospheric balance towards a higher temperature equilibrium. The currect status seems to be something like a 97 % concensus amongst scientists who work in this area that this is the case. It's worth noting that in many other cases, a 97 % concensus would be more than enough to spure action (if there was a 97 % concensus that someone like Assad or ISIS was sitting on weapons of mass destruction, for instance, I don't think politicians would sit around debating whether this was a hoax or not ...).
Anyway, the big joker as I see it is not the carbondioxide emission in itself, but the methane locked in permanently frozen areas in the arctic regions of Russia. Methane is a much more powerful greenhouse gas than carbondioxade, but normally we don't emit that much methane. However, there have been made reasonable claims that if atmospheric temperatures rise by a couple of degrees, this might be enough to thaw these arctic regions during summer, which could potentially lead to huge amounts of methane escaping the now frozen underground and being lead into the atmosphere, which could then start an even more vicious positive feedback loop.
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OhforfSake
Promising
Legendary Hero
Initiate
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posted September 21, 2015 10:51 AM |
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I thought China, countries of EU, etc. would be considered industrialized, which sums up to more than 2 billion.
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Minion
Legendary Hero
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posted September 21, 2015 12:21 PM |
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Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund classify China as a developing country. And China itself considers it a developing country, and keeps reminding of that whenever UN or EU wants it to cut emissions or something.
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"These friends probably started using condoms after having produced the most optimum amount of offsprings. Kudos to them for showing at least some restraint" - Tsar-ivor
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Hadji020
Adventuring Hero
The Underestimated
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posted September 21, 2015 12:31 PM |
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H.A.A.R.P. anyone? This stuff is real.
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OhforfSake
Promising
Legendary Hero
Initiate
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posted September 21, 2015 01:12 PM |
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Thank you.
It could be interesting to see what parts of the world has the largest population growth expectation, to better narrow down where and what the issues are. E.g. iIRC the population increase in China has diminished to the same level or even less than that of EU countries.
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Minion
Legendary Hero
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posted September 21, 2015 01:47 PM |
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India and Africa are the biggest contributors.
India will surpass China and become the most populous country in the world by 2022.  Indeed the growth in China has stabilized.
Gonna we weird, so used to the idea of China being the largest.
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"These friends probably started using condoms after having produced the most optimum amount of offsprings. Kudos to them for showing at least some restraint" - Tsar-ivor
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markkur
Honorable
Legendary Hero
Once upon a time
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posted September 21, 2015 06:52 PM |
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Edited by markkur at 18:54, 21 Sep 2015.
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alcibiades said:
Haven't followed the whole discussion here in detail, but the population growth doesn't tell the whole story in itself, does it?
No there are other issues like economics, trees, forest quality, soil condition, etc. but in the end they all relate to people too.
I just watched an old Doc about "The coming ice-age." (btw, their are those that still think it is up next) Even though the forecast for the event was about 20 years-proven false there is some excellent knowledge shared about Soil. I've known about rainforests being cut-down for economic necessity but I'd not seen anything on the actual quality of the trees. Healthier trees mean better CO2 filters. So the problem is even larger than clear-cutting which is bad enough.
Everyone knows that farmers are using lots of bad chemicals because soil is so poor now but how many know that rock/gravel-dust will bring soil back to life? Think volcano-eruption effects. However, "Big Chemical" has blocked about all effort to move that way for 20 years at the very least.
Just like "Big-Oil" took away light-rail and railroads to give us busses and 18-wheelers. Yeah electricity uses energy too and all that, but imagine the "demand for tires,belts and hoses" that was created by this backward step; (my town had light-rail a century ago and has NOT had it nearly a half-century now)let alone the fact of those monster gas-hogs getting 2-5 miles a gallon. Then there's all those trucks tearing up what?..."asphalt roads." America is absolutely owned by oil. Everything always comes down to greed...or <ahem> need.
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fred79
Disgraceful
Undefeatable Hero
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posted September 21, 2015 09:30 PM |
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/off-topic:
artu said:
So, if you want to have an idea of population growth between, say, 1850 and 2015, what do you do, hop on that time machine across the world and start counting with your fingers?
i wouldn't care, unless it was something i'd have to study, in order to present to a teacher. at which point, it wouldn't matter if i regurgitated generic information that i couldn't verify myself. which is how schooling works. it's all about memory, not necessarily truth. 
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artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
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posted September 21, 2015 09:46 PM |
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Edited by artu at 21:48, 21 Sep 2015.
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Fred, you do realize that it is absolutely impossible to reach an opinion on matters like world population growth rate, global warming etc by personal observation, dont you? Your personal observation is overwhelmingly and inevitably limited to your local area and brief time. If you are going to form ANY opinion on subjects of such magnitude (which you clearly do since you've written so many paragraphs about them), you will have to apply to some data written by others, preferably experts. So, the problem is not IF you'll apply to it but WHICH ones you'll apply to. That is, to be able to pick valid information from trustworthy sources and filter out the bullcrap disinformation, which is, again, only possible by having experience in reading and evaluating written data.
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Are you pretty? This is my occasion. - Ghost
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fred79
Disgraceful
Undefeatable Hero
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posted September 21, 2015 10:03 PM |
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/off-topic:
i understand that. but that doesn't mean i trust the sources. i only really trust my own senses. it's the only thing i can depend on, logically. everything else could just be conjecture or propaganda, designed to push an agenda. i myself have no agenda, so i can rely on that to be honest. but i understand that you have to be able sort through various information to seek truth. lol, i'm not a dumbass. i may come across as one from time to time, though(); which i guess can't really be helped, as it's difficult for me to care about outside opinions contrary to my own in the first place. chalk it up to either the knowledge that i don't bullsnow myself, simple ego, or distrust of others. take your pick.
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elodin
Promising
Legendary Hero
Free Thinker
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posted September 22, 2015 06:06 AM |
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Here is another link to an article that discusses the alteration of the actual recorded temperatures.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11367272/Climategate-the-sequel-How-we-are-STILL-being-tricked-with-flawed-data-on-global-warming.html
A crisis,manufactured or real, gives politicians a chance to steal more money from the people to buy more votes with or to redistribute wealth to correct so called economic injustice.
I remember the climate change high priests wailing about a coming ice age years ago. Then Gore and Moore preached about the world becoming a vast desert due to global warming. Then global warming was changed to climate change because the warming had stopped. Then the doctoring of data began.
Anyways, the climate change evangelists don't believe their message. Gore, Moore, and others have multiple mansions, multiple large cars, fly around the world on private jets. If they actually believed man is causing the earth to become a desolate wasteland they would live much different lives.
So for those of you who think man is warming up the planet what changes have you made to your own life to reduce your carbon footprint? Are you keeping only the bare amount of money you need to live a simple life anddonating the rest to combat global warming? And why do you have a computer and other entertainment devices?
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Revelation
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blizzardboy
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
Nerf Herder
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posted September 22, 2015 06:14 AM |
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artu said:
That's on the UN's high-end projection. You can see barely any decrease in the slope on that graph.
You just need to look at developing countries as we speak. Their birth rates are going down. For the moment, that won't lead to any major decrease in population since it also corresponds to better medical care, but it will.
And again I'll reiterate a point that is by far more important than the moderating birthrates of developing countries: in 2050, we are going to be more advanced than right now, and probably by a much wider margin than how much more advanced we are right now compared to 1980. In 1980 almost all of the development came out of USA, Europe, or Japan. In 2015 there's more and more research able to be generated elsewhere. So not only are there more net people on the planet to generate development, but there are more people in post-industrialized counties that can actually do it.
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"Folks, I don't trust children. They're here to replace us."
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artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
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posted September 22, 2015 01:21 PM |
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Edited by artu at 14:16, 22 Sep 2015.
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@Blizz
Yes, I get your optimism about new technologies, ways to use new types of resources etc. These things can happen, they certainly will happen to some degree but will it be enough, that would be just guessing. And keep in mind I was talking about long-term issues, even if new technologies and resources come in play, at some point the multiplication should come to an end (or we should be able to colonize other planets which is probably much harder than it sounds except for maybe Mars). No specie can multiply forever without seriously destroying the others and having serious consequences on themselves, too, no matter what you farm or what you invent, there is a limit to growth and unlike the capitalist myth, it is not eternal, neither economically nor environmentally.
@Elodin
elodin said:
Here is another link to an article that discusses the alteration of the actual recorded temperatures.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11367272/Climategate-the-sequel-How-we-are-STILL-being-tricked-with-flawed-data-on-global-warming.html
A crisis,manufactured or real, gives politicians a chance to steal more money from the people to buy more votes with or to redistribute wealth to correct so called economic injustice.
There is simply too much data about this to be manipulated. There can be a few calculation errors here and there or exaggerations on some essays but using them to deny global warming is like using the Piltdown Man to try refuting evolution. Besides, if there was any conspiracy or disinformation on this subject manifactured by the politicians, the poor people who suffer "the so-called" social injustice wouldnt be able to pay for such a thing, would they, they are not the ones financing the political campaigns. And when we say big companies and financing politics (and war), interesting coincidence, the writer of your article (Christopher Booker) has a book on the subject and for his claims to be true, it is concluded that only two possibilities exist (from Wiki):
"The book, which became his best-selling work, claims that there is not actually a consensus on climate change, and postulates that the measures taken by governments to combat climate change "will turn out to be one of the most expensive, destructive, and foolish mistakes the human race has ever made".[25] The book was characterised by Philip Ball in The Observer as being as "the definitive climate sceptics' manual", in which "he has rounded up just about every criticism ever made of the majority scientific view that global warming, most probably caused by human activity, is under way, and presented them unchallenged".[26] Ball went on to note that Booker's position required the reader to believe that "1) Most of the world's climate scientists, for reasons unspecified, decided to create a myth about human-induced global warming and have managed to twist endless measurements and computer models to fit their case, without the rest of the scientific community noticing. George W Bush and certain oil companies have, however, seen through the deception. 2) Most of the world's climate scientists are incompetent and have grossly misinterpreted their data and models, yet their faulty conclusions are not, as you might imagine, a random chaos of assertions, but all point in the same direction."
Hmmmm... George Bush and the oil companies who financed him again... What a coincidence they will be the ones losing all the money if we do take precautions on global warming. But no, all the politicians of the world conspire FOR global warming because they want to play Robin Hood, that's how politicians are, they are idealists who will stop at nothing to be able to help the poor!
Quote:
So for those of you who think man is warming up the planet what changes have you made to your own life to reduce your carbon footprint? Are you keeping only the bare amount of money you need to live a simple life anddonating the rest to combat global warming? And why do you have a computer and other entertainment devices?
Well, this is unfortunately true. While talk is easy, people hardly give up the way of life they are accustomed to. A big mansion doesnt necessarily mean more pollution and we sure wont give up using computers and cars and go back to pre-industrial times. But very few of us even take the simple precautions such as not leaving the lights open when we're in the next room or buying nature friendly gas even if it's a little more expensive etc. Maybe, the next generation will be more responsible about this, maybe we are too old to change our routine.
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Are you pretty? This is my occasion. - Ghost
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fred79
Disgraceful
Undefeatable Hero
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posted September 22, 2015 01:48 PM |
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Edited by fred79 at 14:10, 22 Sep 2015.
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@ elodin: you think one person will be able to change the outcome of a planet's atmosphere? that may be what many people think; although, that shouldn't stop them from altering their lives. i absolutely agree, that people who believe that their presence on this earth and how they live impacts the various environments on it, should be doing something to reduce their own personal impact. i think everyone should be doing something about it.
i do what i can to reduce my carbon footprint, myself; i recycle everything i can, i reuse dishes so i don't have to waste water, i don't let food go bad, i'll never procreate, etc. but that doesn't mean i'm going to live in a cave and exist by eating bugs. i have desires that i want met(which is why it's easy to understand my pov on overpopulation, obesity, and corporations that throw tons of usable resources away without using them). i get hungry for meat and everything else, same as every other human on the planet. i'd be all for eating humans, if they'd put that into production and make it legal. that'd help reduce the carbon footprint too, no? i also believe that death is a very necessary part of life, and with humans, much more so; because humans make locust swarms look like beneficial pollinating insects, by comparison.
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markkur
Honorable
Legendary Hero
Once upon a time
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posted September 22, 2015 06:49 PM |
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Edited by markkur at 19:06, 22 Sep 2015.
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@ Elodin
A Brit paper? Nevermind.
And I do what I can to conserve energy; with my health as it is, that is about as active as I can be.
No plastic bottles.
I buy staple-foods in bulk when I can.
My Thermostat is 62-64 in winter (no wood burning) and I use two single-room 120volt AC.
I do not shower everyday now but frequently will do "sitz-baths" instead, on the usual suspects.<L> And when I do shower it is to the point and not an effort to empty the hot-water tank.
At night, the only light in the house that is on is where I am. NO hundred watt bulbs. Passage-light are 25w to 40w, since I'm just passing though and not doing surgery.
I pretty much only eat fish, fruit and grains; if/when I eat meat it will be fresh and from a local butcher. Anyone that will bother to look into meat production practices (from beginning to what you get in a package) will understand why.
Every aspect of this regimen is about Energy but there are other issues involved that I should not have to explain, surrounding pollution, health, etc.
Our government, no matter what party "has the party" is all about business and nothing more. I mentioned light-rail & railroads earlier and the swing to the present trucking-industry but there are many, many more fails but I'll only highlight one as an example.
Take bottled anything. Instead of reverting to the old-fashioned glass-bottling, when poor boys like myself would go out in public-space and find every bottle cast off by a lazy-you-know-what,(as if the world was their personal trash-can) we would redeem that nickel-deposit and get the bottle back to the manufacturer--- now everything is made of plastic and headed where? City-dumps <ahem> Oh sorry, I mean "Land-fills" that sounds so much nicer, doesn't it? "We are NOT dumping anything on our planet, we are only filling some land that needs filling."
That's enough, my blood-pressure is rising.
Btw, this future data collection could help in the future. It's interesting anyway.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmlX3fLQrEc
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