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| Thread: Question about "Death Stare" |  This thread is pages long: 1 2 · NEXT» |
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dr_st
Tavern Dweller
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posted April 06, 2006 11:54 AM |
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Question about "Death Stare"
It's partially WoG-related, so I thought about putting it there, but since it's a question for the purpose of enlightenment, I decided it's best suited here.
OK, so there are Mighty Gorgons with their "Death Stare" special.
And in WoG there are Nightmares with their "Extended Death Stare" special.
Basically it allows these creatures to instantly kill a certain number of creatures in the enemy stack in addition to their regular damage.
Questions:
1) How exactly does it work, i.e., what are the odds of it happening, how is the number of creatures affected calculated?
2) Are there creatures, besides the undead, who are immune to the death stare?
3) How is the "Extended Death Stare" of the Nightmares different from normal "Death Stare" of the Mighty Gorgons?
Thanks.
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supersonic
Famous Hero
being digested. E=mc^2, s=vt
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posted April 06, 2006 01:20 PM |
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Okay, in on't play WoG, so I don't have any knowledge about it. AFAIK, death stare chance is 10% per stack of mighty gorgons, so if you have 9 or less, better split them.
10 mighty gorgons (dunno why) always kill 1 creature, maybe because the 10% probability x 10 = 100% probability (not sure)
____________
I am having a new style 
Big, fat, naughty. Potential girlfriend - pm me. 
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dr_st
Tavern Dweller
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posted April 06, 2006 01:35 PM |
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Hmmm... Now I understand even less.
10% per stack or 10% per unit? The way you say it, it appears, that when you have more units in your stack, you kill more. 10 MGs will always kill 1 (I seem to have noticed something similar as well). Can a stack of 10 kill 2? Can 9MGs kill 1 unit?
And what is the advantage of splitting stacks if I have less than 10? Is there not a similar advantage to splitting when I have more than 10?
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supersonic
Famous Hero
being digested. E=mc^2, s=vt
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posted April 06, 2006 01:39 PM |
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Okay, seems that I confused both you and myself. Every stack has a 10 % chance of instantly killing 1 creature per ten mighty gorgons. So if you have 20 mighty gorgons, there's a 10% chance of killing 2 enemy units. If you have less than 20 mighty gorgons, there's always a 10% chance of killing 1 enemy creature, no matter if you have 1 MG or 19 MG, so it is useful to split them.
At least I think it works that way.
____________
I am having a new style
Big, fat, naughty. Potential girlfriend - pm me.
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Meph
Adventuring Hero
Rampaging Rampart
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posted April 06, 2006 04:24 PM |
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No, it works like this.
1 Mighty Gorgon has 10 percent chance to kill with Deathstare
2 Mighty Gorgons have 20 percent chance to instant-kill
5 Mighty Gorgons have 50 percent chance to instant-kill
10 Mighty Gorgons have 100% chance to instant-kill 1 unit
11 Mighty Gorgons will instantly kill 1 unit, and have a 10% chance to kill a 2nd unit as well.
15 Mighty Gorgons will instantly kill 1 unit, and have a 50% chance of killing a 2nd unit
30 Mighty Gorgons will instantly kill 3 units.
Clear enough?
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Solmyr77
Hired Hero
noob
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posted April 06, 2006 04:30 PM |
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I think, it's only 10% per cow and capped at 1 per 10 cows. You don't always kill cows/10 creatures.
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Russ
Promising
Supreme Hero
blah, blah, blah
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posted April 06, 2006 05:02 PM |
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Quote:
No, it works like this.
1 Mighty Gorgon has 10 percent chance to kill with Deathstare
2 Mighty Gorgons have 20 percent chance to instant-kill
5 Mighty Gorgons have 50 percent chance to instant-kill
10 Mighty Gorgons have 100% chance to instant-kill 1 unit
11 Mighty Gorgons will instantly kill 1 unit, and have a 10% chance to kill a 2nd unit as well.
15 Mighty Gorgons will instantly kill 1 unit, and have a 50% chance of killing a 2nd unit
30 Mighty Gorgons will instantly kill 3 units.
Clear enough?
Please ignore the above since everything after 1 Mighty Gorgon is WRONG.
* Each MG in a stack has a 10% chance to death stare a creature. (So, yes, a stack of 1 MG has a 10% chance to death stare something.)
* The MAXIMUM is 1 creature per 10 MGs. This DOES NOT mean that 10 MGs will always stare one creature to death.
This means that:
When 10 MGs attack a stack of creatures, their chance to death stare one creature is 1 - 0.9^10 = 65%.
20 MGs have 1 - 0.9^20 = 88% to death stare AT LEAST least one creature (to a maximum of 2).
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supersonic
Famous Hero
being digested. E=mc^2, s=vt
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posted April 06, 2006 05:45 PM |
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Okay, so that's why they tell us to split the stacks...
Probability of scoring 1 kill with three mighty moos = 1-0.9^3 = 0.27
Probability of killing at least one creature with 3 separate stacks of 1 mighty gorgon each = 3 * 10% = 30%. And there's a 0.001 probability of killing 3 creatures with 3 mighty gorgons! With 3 in one stack the maximum kills is 1!
You can never be sure that your gorgons are going to kill creature with death stare, since 0.9^x > 0.
With 50 gorgons, you will get
1 - 0.005153775 = 0.994846224 probability to kill at least one creature. Maximum is 5.
With 80 gorgons, you will get
1 - 0.000218474 = 0.999781525 probability to kill at least one creature. Maximum is 8.
With 100 gorgons, you will get
1 - 0.000026561 = 0.999973438 probability to kill at least one creature. Maximum is 10.
With 150 gorgons, you will get
1 - 0.000000136 = 0.999999863 probability to kill at least one creature. Maximum is 15.
With 170 gorgons, you will get
1 - 0.000000016 = 0.999999983 probability to kill at least one creature. Maximum is 17.
These test are pretty much useless, unless you do quadruple building in your 4 fortress town, every week is the week of mighty gorgon and you flagged 50 mighty gorgon dwellings. I just wanted to prove my point that there's always a slight chance of no creature dying.
Thank you
____________
I am having a new style
Big, fat, naughty. Potential girlfriend - pm me.
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supersonic
Famous Hero
being digested. E=mc^2, s=vt
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posted April 06, 2006 06:04 PM |
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No, if you have 3 separate stacks of mighty gorgons, then the probability adds up.
PS: I edited my post, to prove a new point - no matter how many mighty gorgons you have, there's always a slight chance of no creature dying.
____________
I am having a new style
Big, fat, naughty. Potential girlfriend - pm me.
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Russ
Promising
Supreme Hero
blah, blah, blah
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posted April 06, 2006 06:12 PM |
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Quote:
Probability of killing at least one creature with 3 separate stacks of 1 mighty gorgon each = 3 * 10% = 30%.
Nope, it is still 1 - 0.9^3  You won't have 100% chance of death staring something with 10 attacks of single MG stacks
The reason to split them is, as you've said, because 3 stacks of one MG can death stare 2 or even 3 creatures. A single stack of 3 MGs has exactly 0% chance to death stare something 
So, if you have 24 MGs, some open spots in your army and you feel lucky, you may want to consider splitting them into stacks of 1, 1, 1 and 21 to maximize the effect. That way you can death stare 6 creatures in one round!
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Xarfax111
Bad-mannered
Supreme Hero
The last hero standing
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posted April 06, 2006 06:23 PM |
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...with 24 Moos my guess is that 4 times 8 would give the best results. well but who am i? 
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angelito
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
proud father of a princess
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posted April 06, 2006 06:59 PM |
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But then u would be a cheater, coz 4 times 8 are 32...
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Better judged by 12 than carried by 6.
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Xarfax111
Bad-mannered
Supreme Hero
The last hero standing
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posted April 06, 2006 07:43 PM |
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oh geez...sometimes im somehow "brilliant"
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supersonic
Famous Hero
being digested. E=mc^2, s=vt
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posted April 06, 2006 08:49 PM |
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Yeah, Russ, you are right. Sorry, My maths...
Anyway, if you don't include any creatures other than moos, the best combo IMVHO, is to have 12 gorgons (two weeks), split into 1 stack of 3, 3 stacks of 2 and 3 stacks of one.
That way, you have a one striker with massive 0.271 chance of killing, 3 medium batting forces, that have 0.19 chance of stoning, and a blitz (scout) force with 0.1 chance of stoning.
But who cares, nobody will have an army consisting entirely of MMs. Unless that person is me
____________
I am having a new style
Big, fat, naughty. Potential girlfriend - pm me.
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dr_st
Tavern Dweller
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posted April 06, 2006 09:26 PM |
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Thank you for the detailed explanation.
I managed to find a similar explanation in a very old thread:
http://heroescommunity.com/viewthread.php3?TID=12210
Now what remains to see is what is different with the Nightmares. But I guess I'll just ask it in the WoG forum.
Also, something to notice - the gaze of the Moos does not work against Nightmares, but the gaze of the Nightmares works agaist the Moos.
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angelito
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
proud father of a princess
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posted April 06, 2006 09:42 PM |
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Perhaps because the nightmares are "undead"?
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Better judged by 12 than carried by 6.
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Russ
Promising
Supreme Hero
blah, blah, blah
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posted April 06, 2006 10:22 PM |
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Edited by Russ on 6 Apr 2006
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Quote:
...with 24 Moos my guess is that 4 times 8 would give the best results. well but who am i?
Ok, suppose you had 32 Moos. Splitting them into stacks of 8 should make it very convenient for the enemy to wipe your stacks of one by one with his powerstacks without having to worry about retal.
Now I can answer your question, Xarfax. Who are you? You are a truly brilliant strategist. I would NEVER think of doing something as brilliant as that.
Now - a little more about statistics. If you don't take stack limitations into account, it does not matter whether you have 7 stacks of 1, 1 stack of 7, or stacks of 3 and 4. The chances of all the moos in your army death staring something are THE SAME.
The probability of one stack death staring is 10%
The probability of one stack of 2 moos death staring AT LEAST ONCE is 19%.
HOWEVER, when you look at the probability of AN ARMY of 1 stack of 1 moo and 1 stack of 2 moos deathstaring AT LEAST ONCE, it will NOT be 10% + 19%. It will be 1 - 0.9^3 = 27%.
I know that this sounds a bit weird and doesn't seem to make sense. You may need to read a stats textbook or take a stats course to fully understand why it works that way.
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Xarfax111
Bad-mannered
Supreme Hero
The last hero standing
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posted April 06, 2006 10:48 PM |
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well depends against the AI it gives best results, against humans i wouldnt split them like this. Still splitting those cows in 4 times 8 do have the highest chances.
Btw. Russ i can crush you in an online game anytime with my left finger.
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Russ
Promising
Supreme Hero
blah, blah, blah
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posted April 06, 2006 11:12 PM |
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Quote:
Btw. Russ i can crush you in an online game anytime with my left finger.
Only if you are typing the cheat codes with it
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Binabik
Responsible
Legendary Hero
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posted April 07, 2006 11:11 AM |
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I just tested this for the manual thread. I didn't do a large enough sample size to be highly accurate. Only enough to start forming a picture.
I don't know much about stats. So Mr Russtats. If a single MG has 10% chance. What are the odds of getting 35 attacks in a row with 1 MG without a single death stare? I'd guess the odds are pretty low, like less than 1%. It makes me wonder if there is also a lower end cap.
About splitting. Again the sample size was small, but I found going 1 over a multiple of 10 was the best bet. Like 11, 21, 31, etc.
21 attacks with 11 MGs:
0 kills 19%
1 Kill 33%
2 Kills 48%
The 48% was from 1 more MG.
42 attacks with 19 MGs
0 kill 0%
1 Kill 34%
2 Kill 71%
A gain of 23% with 8 more MGs
8 MGs should be closer to 57%
With my tiny sample size it almost looks more like an inverse log scale (with a cap at 10).
BTW the sample size was small because I was only testing for the cap. I only need 1 double kill with 11 MGs to prove it could happen.
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