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| Thread: Syria |  This thread is pages long: 1 2 · NEXT» |
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blizzardboy
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posted June 04, 2012 10:14 PM |
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Syria
Some reason for why military intervention in Syria is unlikely to be effective
What do you guys think about some of these reasons given for why a military intervention would be unattractive? The speaker mentions at the end that starving the regime of cash would likely be a better long-term strategy, but do you think the price involved in those measures would also lead to be more troublesome than what they are worth?
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del_diablo
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posted June 05, 2012 10:41 AM |
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The first problem is that Syria is a stable country, if it gets past the civil war. The second problem is that a lot of the rebel activity is founded by western nations, creating a artificial larger rebel activity and thus more instability in the region. The rebels are also responsible for a lot of war crimes, that gets ignored bluntly. Will also cause long with a causing more instability in the region. While it might lead to a form of democracy, the common sphere will just lead to parties that we might view as anti progressive, leading to roughly the same as other nations, such as Egypt. There will also be violence and problems in the transition phase. Syria is also a supplier of oil for the region, like Libya, and further supply problems would likely lead to long term economic damage. It could also lead to mega corporations taking massive advantage and exploit the situation, if the local goverment is not strong enough on principle.
A last problem is that modern armies still have no idea what "just target the armies mean". The best "bombing" during Lybia was French planes dropping large concrete blocks directly at vehicles, because there was almost no external damage to civilians.
Rushing into Syria for one side will result in a lot more atrociousness being committed by the supporting side, so more blood. Did we mention that Syria.
Now... we also have the issue of Russia having a minor arms dealing relationship with Syria, but regardless of a powershift Russia will most likely still be a major arms dealer, meaning the political smear campaign is likely just a smear campaign in effort to make the war/intervention eatable for the public, if it gets started.
Also the issue with the western sphere not enforcing human rights, or did Syria sign something in the first place?
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Minion
Legendary Hero
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posted June 07, 2012 02:40 PM |
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To put it short, military intervention will not stop the violence. A country that is on the verge of civil war, ANY unstability more can plunge it into chaos. The president still has support, I don't remember what minority group is the President from, but those from the same group vigorously support him.
"It seems heartless to stand by and do so little as massacres, such as the atrocity carried out at Houla, continue. More than 13,000 Syrians have been killed in the last 14 months of revolution. But there is no reason to believe U.S. intervention can staunch the violence. American troops killed over 10,000 Iraqis in the first month of invasion in 2003. A further 100,000 Iraqis were killed by the time they left" -blog of Joshua Landis
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Seraphim
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posted June 07, 2012 05:07 PM |
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To put it short, military intervention will not stop the violence.
What will then? Careful diplomacy?
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A country that is on the verge of civil war, ANY unstability more can plunge it into chaos.
Civil war? Syria is already in a civil war. The regime is killings its own citizens.
Unstability? The country is in a civil war, it is as unstable as it can get.
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The president still has support, I don't remember what minority group is the President from, but those from the same group vigorously support him.
In our world, if a bunch of people support death squads and ransom killing than they
1: Are forced to support that
2: Are genocidal
3: Mental
If the regime does not stop killing then the regime should be killed or said more logically, removed.
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"But there is no reason to believe U.S. intervention can staunch the violence."
So does doing nothing.
Why do the "oh so awesome" other countries like Russia or China do nothing? It's hilarious when they scream injustice when the US does anything controversial, but when they do so to others they keep quiet.
Or a better question. Why does the UN fail so horribly ? An impotent organisation such as the UN should not even exist imo.
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American troops killed over 10,000 Iraqis in the first month of invasion in 2003. A further 100,000 Iraqis were killed by the time they left" -blog of Joshua Landis
True true. The only way to prevent death is the threat of death apparently.
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xerox
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posted June 07, 2012 05:14 PM |
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I feel that the media gives a very unnuanced perspective on the situation.
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Minion
Legendary Hero
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posted June 07, 2012 06:38 PM |
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@Seraphim. What will stop the violence? There is no magical cure. You hope that military involvent of the West will "save the day" but it has been proven to be extrmely troublesome in the Middle-East before.
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del_diablo
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posted June 07, 2012 08:19 PM |
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Minion: Because that would be ignoring the forest because of all the trees. Syrnia is not a problem, its several problems. Invading would cause more, and leave some of them unchecked:
-We still got several arms manifactuers supplying groups with large amounts of arms, the media just focuses on one of them, for smearing.
-The dictator is a part of a minority, just disposing him the president or parts of the power structure will lead to a genocide
-The entire power structure is built on leeway given once upon a time, changing the top won't affect the bottom. Allowing a several month long power vacuum can allow worse things to happen
-Any form of invasion will also likely mean IMF wants to have a few words with the nation, leading to hostile foreign mega corporation mining
-Any form of invasion will lead to bombing of civilians, and leaving will make them unified again resulting in more genocide
-The hunt on Assad supporters is just as a big problem as
-And the last point, the rebels are just as much to blame as Assad and his supporters. Rebels is supplied by foreign forces, some of the massacres has been stages, rebels being hunted is just as a big problem as Assad supporters being hunted.
-And we still won't get unbiased news of this conflict
And lets be honest here, if UN actually wanted to solve the problem, its really simple:
-No need to bomb, just send in the Peace Keeping forces with orders to uphold the written law, overriding the corruption, arresting officers breaking the law, arresting judges ignoring the law, etc. Most of the problems stems from corruption fueling hate fueling corruption.
-Take control over the courts, but only to enforce neutrality
-Stop all forms of weapon supplement and persecute the arms dealers, even if they are big international names
-Stop all forms of economic sanctions, its just adds fuel to a civil war.
Most of the times UN has sent in a Peace Keeping force, the problem was that they was just allowed to watch as somebody broke their own countries set of laws and committed major arson or massacre. Once enough snows are in jail, enough corruption is purged, and some of the structure is allowed to reform, there suddenly stops being a reason for a civil war.
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Salamandre
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posted June 07, 2012 08:29 PM |
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Let them kill each other, why bother. The problem with those countries is that any western war based action is aftermath interpreted as occupation or imperialistic. We should let Arab countries solve their own problems, and if they don't, they only have to blame themselves.
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blizzardboy
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posted June 07, 2012 08:31 PM |
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@Diablo:
So... what you're saying is... you support direct military intervention? Because I'm not sure how else you expect to have the U.N. take over the courts of the county and enforce what would supposedly be neutrality (international interests = / = neutral). Assad's government wouldn't stand for it.
You're also talking about picking a fight with Russia + China, which are both becoming more influential by the week. Not a literal fight, granted, but you're talking about potentially criminalizing their actions, which they of course would deny & rebuke and would just lead to the matter becoming even more polarized.
@Salamandre:
Largely true, but Libya wasn't as bad as Iraq because there was actually a substantial rebel presence already in place that was seeking help from the outside world. Libya still isn't a stable country post-Gaddafi, but it's at least not a war zone. Such circumstances didn't exist in Iraq, other than of course pockets of underground resistance here and there that were quiet for the most part since Saddam had the country solidly under his thumb. You need to have a significant faction within the country that is taking the initiative to overthrow the regime before anybody can begin to think that intervention might work without having an immense price tag attached to it. But is Syria more like Iraq or more like Libya?
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Minion
Legendary Hero
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posted June 07, 2012 09:06 PM |
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Diablo, great post. The solution that you proposed however isn't that simple, China and Russia sit in the Security Counsil of UN for starters. They oppose military involvement.
True that one major problem is arms dealing, especially from a certain Russian government owned arms manufactorer. Russia probably wants a power shift however, as they want stability in the area. But they don't want to stop dealing arms, as far as I have understood. I guess UN could try force sanctions here of some sorts.
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del_diablo
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posted June 07, 2012 11:46 PM |
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blizzardboy & Minion: Indeed. I just love the UN for its problems with unity. I think China could agree, if the basis was solely on marking sure the written law was just enforced, but that still leaves Russian veto.
Anyhow, its the only solution that will most likely have long term calming effects, whereas bombing or sanctions will just look like symptom treatment instead of disease treatment with unpleasant long term effects.
blizzardboy: I am not exactly sure if I would call that direct military intervention. So far it seems that direct military intervention is to declare a sort of psuedo war, bomb a few military bases, but not uphold any form of law, leading to many long term problems and blame. I don't even think anything like what I proposed has ever been done by UN either.
Then again, its just semantics, we all know that Salamander wish is most likely to come true, as Syria is not a country as mine able as Libya was.
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kodial79
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posted July 01, 2012 08:50 AM |
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Libya is defintely a war zone. Last three days saw 47 people dead. It might not be yet as bad as Iraq, but it's inevitably going to be since there's nothing to stop the ensuing tribal fighting now that Qaddafi is gone. Thank you USA and Europe, now go die in a fire. 
Same as Syria. Even idiots know by now, that the western powers are the ones who fan the flames of civil war there. Rebels that are everything, except Syrians ofcourse. British specops, Qatari specops, Al Qaeda terrorists, Saudi Arabians whatever, just not Syrians. Which was also the case with Libya.
The truth is, that neither Qaddafi nor Assad are the bloodthirsty dictators the Western media portray them to be. Nor were they hated enough by their people to start such a bloodshed. If the people hate anyone there, it's the so called rebels who in fact, are the ones who commit most if not all of these atrocities that happen there right now.
But anyway, back to the topic, why is a military intervention going to be ineffective in Syria? Because the Russians and the Chinese are standing by them, this time. Weapons, military technonology are being handed out to the Assad regime, and Russia has even stationed troops in there. Who do you think shot down those Turkish aircrafts? And the West is pooping their pants over it, cause they're not used to picking on a target that can actually fight back.
Putin is the only mediator of peace now. Sure, he is no saint, his hands maybe just as bloody but right now, he's the only man that stands between us and an armed conflict that will destroy yet another muslim nation and worse even, could very likely escalate into full blown world war.
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Salamandre
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posted July 01, 2012 10:37 AM |
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Kodial, you like fiction.
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kodial79
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posted July 01, 2012 11:11 AM |
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Kodial, you like fiction.
Did you vote for Sarkozy?
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Darkshadow
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posted July 01, 2012 11:52 AM |
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Kodial, you like fiction.
This.
Maybe you had some proof to show us? Oh no but that is just impossible because American black ops and evil western media hid and destroyed any.
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kodial79
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posted July 01, 2012 12:45 PM |
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Really now, the internet is swarming with hundreds over hundreds of reports and not all of them are coming from obscure news site but also mainstream ones.
Well, unless you're one of them who think that if it's not CNN it's not legit, I guess. But then you're just hopeless.
You'd be a fool to think that mass media are telling you the truth, that Europe and USA are the good guys, and the Free Syria Army fight for the good of Syria. If you like fiction, then this is it. Like a stupid disney fairytale...
Anyway, here's a quick search but you could do one of your own.
http://www.rt.com/news/tribal-clashes-libya-dead-three-135/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jan/17/syrians-support-assad-western-propaganda
http://newmediajournal.us/indx.php/item/4489
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/06/24/247677/syria-arrests-40-germans-report/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/22/saudi-arabia-syria-rebel-army
http://www.cbc.ca/thecurrent/news-promo/2012/06/26/saudi-arabia-and-the-free-syrian-army/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/23/syria-crisis-saudi-arabia-qatar_n_1620733.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan_Islamic_Fighting_Group#Relationship_with_al_Qaeda
http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/30/al-qaeda-sends-fighters-to-libya/
http://www.alternet.org/rss/breaking_news/790839/al-qaeda_likely__behind_syria_bombings%3A_us_spy_chief/
http://www.dailypaul.com/183810/the-truth-behind-gaddafis-murder
http://www.thisisafrica.me/city-life/detail/2802/How-bad-was-Gaddafi%3F
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18551693
http://friendsofsyria.wordpress.com/2012/06/28/u-s-backed-syrian-rebels-killing-christians/
http://weaselzippers.us/2012/06/10/report-syrian-rebels-were-behind-houla-massacre-killed-alawite-and-shia-families-for-supporting-regime/
http://www.sott.net/articles/show/246673-Houla-massacre-carried-out-by-Syrian-rebels-says-Frankfurter-Allgemeine-Zeitung
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57458624/syrian-govt-rebels-massacre-dozens-of-shabiha/
http://rt.com/politics/lavrov-syria-veto-un-565/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBBbikkWk44
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4186495,00.html
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/international/russian_envoy_receives_hero_welcome_qtaBqg5A2QDM1yT6MT0l7H
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2012/06/19/Iran-Russia-and-China-Send-Warships-Submarines-and-Tanks-to-Syria-While-Obama-Bows-to-Mexico-s-Next-President
http://www.prisonplanet.com/syria-iran-russia-and-china-reportedly-plan-war-game.html
http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/15/12238938-us-official-russia-sends-troops-to-syria-as-peace-hopes-fade?lite
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/russian-navy-ships-set-to-sail-to-protect-military-base-in-syria-report/article4324272/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9339905/Syria-Russia-to-send-marines-to-naval-base.html
http://www.prisonplanet.com/big-powers-move-in-on-syria-russian-troops-for-tartus-us-forces-ready-to-go.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57454266/u.s.-russian-military-ship-en-route-to-syria/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/report-russia-to-send-navy-ships-carrying-marines-to-syria-to-protect-base/2012/06/18/gJQAPvrpkV_story.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18562210
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Seraphim
Supreme Hero
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posted July 01, 2012 03:06 PM |
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Edited by Seraphim at 15:22, 01 Jul 2012.
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Really now, the internet is swarming with hundreds over hundreds of reports and not all of them are coming from obscure news site but also mainstream ones.
You do realize that if there are like 9000 images of syrian troops giving candies to children, that does not make it a reality. User content is always doubtful.
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Well, unless you're one of them who think that if it's not CNN it's not
legit, I guess. But then you're just hopeless.
Hopeless? I dont see the relevance here. Hopeless to what? Truth? If you really meant truth than I wont discuss with you anymore. Before asking why, truth is, sadly, subjective to human beliefs.
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You'd be a fool to think that mass media are telling you the truth
The truth appears to be mostly somewhere in the middle. But who a fool is should not be judged by you or me or anyone else.
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, that Europe and USA are the good guys,
Wait, what? Good guys? What makes you think Russia is the good guy? Selling arms to Syria definitely does not make them good. There are no good guys and bad guys, this goes especially for governments.
The morals you choose here are childish. Black and white does not hold for human morals ,and politics are rarely coherent. Each side has its own agenda. Be sure that it probably is a selfish one. THe only ones that definitely will lose are the citizens.
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and the Free Syria Army fight for the good of Syria. If you like fiction, then this is it. Like a stupid disney fairytale...
To me, seeing hundreds of syrians waving the russian flag, as if they are flag marionettes, is very satirical. Hundreds of individuals reduced to nothing but propaganda colors.
The irony is that Syrians are supporting Russians,where Russians are openly anti-muslim and tend to have neo-fascist and neo-nazist ideologies.
I believe that, nobody is fighting for the greater good, but only for themselves.
Frankly, nobody really cares about syria. I believe that Russia does not want to lose syria because they have a good strategic position and are a good business partner. Russians have to sell their junk to someone, like all nations do.
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Darkshadow
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Cerise Princess
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posted July 01, 2012 03:21 PM |
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Frankly, nobody really cares about syria. I believe that Russia does not want to lose syria because they have a good strategic position and are a good business partner. Russians have to sell their junk to someone, like all nations do.
Well that and the naval base there gives Russian an access to the Mediterranean.
Because Russia needs military access to the med for...probably some obscure and laughable reason.
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kodial79
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How'd Phi's Lov't
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posted July 01, 2012 04:03 PM |
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Seraphim:
User content is not any more doubtful than whatever report is being given by the journalists of mainstream media. Unlike the mainstream media though, user content is a neutral force as a whole. Simply because they're not one single body of journalism such as any of the mainstream media.
Hopeless as in, you only choose one source (or maybe one certain group of news sources which promote certain interests) to get your news from, which ultimately gives you a very one-sided point of view of the news you're receiving.
Indeed the truth is somewhere in the middle. But as I've been reading through posts here and there, in this thread and other forums, it appears that most of the people do swallow easily what pro-West media tells them, and readily disregard the rest.
And I don't see anyone attacking someone else here when they say that Assad is a monster, I get attacked though for saying the West is the monster.
No point me to where did I say that Russians are the good guys? Even I described Putin in my post as "no saint and just as bloody". Yes, yes, I know. Everyone is an snow.
However, and that is a fact, Putin and Russia are the ones who will not profit now from a war in Syria, and they're trying to stop it while contrary to that, it seems that certain Western powers will profit from it and they're trying to make it happen.
Wait, what? Russians have... Neonazi ideologies? And then you were accusing me of being childish? Ha!!!
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Seraphim
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posted July 01, 2012 04:51 PM |
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Edited by Seraphim at 16:56, 01 Jul 2012.
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Seraphim:
User content is not any more doubtful than whatever report is being given by the journalists of mainstream media. Unlike the mainstream media though, user content is a neutral force as a whole. Simply because they're not one single body of journalism such as any of the mainstream media.
Neutral force? User generated content is anything but neutral. You will have content completely pro-Rebel and pro Assad. Its pure propaganda through internet,nothing genuine.
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Indeed the truth is somewhere in the middle. But as I've been reading through posts here and there, in this thread and other forums, it appears that most of the people do swallow easily what pro-West media tells them, and readily disregard the rest.
That is purely your own opinion. I dont regard western media as the ultimate truth, however I believe it is far more "truthful" than any primitive propaganda driven eastern news network.
At least european media uses the correct vocabulary with "Reports of violence" or "Witnesses claim" instead of "Western imperialists" and "the EVIL US".
I do know that anything that comes from russia is pure BS. I dont simple guess this, I can provide evidence for this. RT is a biased, "Mafia" owned, television network whose aim is to blame the US,the west for anthing bad. They never,and I mean ,never mention negative things about Russia or their agende.
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And I don't see anyone attacking someone else here when they say that Assad is a monster, I get attacked though for saying the West is the monster.
The same BS as before. Nobody is a monster here. Assad is just a dictator,nothing more. The west is doing what it always does, condemn violence. Foreign politics have their agendas, unknown to the public. Your "But everybody says nothing against the west" attitude is ridiculous. Guess why people say nothing against the west here? Because they did nothing bad to condemn them in Syria's case. The "West" wants to end the violence with sanctions,Russia plays the role of making sure Assad remains in power.
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However, and that is a fact, Putin and Russia are the ones who will not profit now from a war in Syria, and they're trying to stop it while contrary to that, it seems that certain Western powers will profit from it and they're trying to make it happen.
Pure speculation and opinion. Apparently, you know what Russia's secret agenda is and "Know" they wont profit from this endeavor.
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Wait, what? Russians have... Neonazi ideologies? And then you were accusing me of being childish? Ha!!!
1/3 of all neonazis of the planet live in russia,they have a seat in the duma and russian nationalism or should I say fascism is a known thing.
But I mentioned this to point out the irony of Syrians supporting russia.
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