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| Thread: US General Election 2024 Predictions |  This thread is pages long: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 · «PREV / NEXT» |
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JollyJoker
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posted November 06, 2024 06:28 PM |
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Look, Blizzard, from my point of view, 4 years ago, the then current president lost vs. Joe Biden - for whatever reasons - after the former won against Clinton. Trumps 4 years were not exactly great, and in the aftermath of the 2020 election a lot has happened that SHOULD have made Trump un-electable, whatever his opponent.
After all that had happened, after the US economy did an awesome recovery, after Trump did everything in hiw power to DIVIDE the country into red and blue (with some success), after it was clear that Trump as a president MIGHT (I say "might", because there's still hope for the contrary, but not much) endanger the whole system of checks and balances (which is pretty out of whack already), with 6/3 supreme judges and a Rep dominated House plus the wild card of Trump being basically unimpeachable now (imagine Trump can nominate yet another supreme judge). 4 years later, Trump 4 years older, definitely not being of sane mind, Trump wins handsomely against Harris.
So which swing state voters decided, that Biden was a way better candidate than Trump in 2020, but Harris a way worse candidate than Trump now, and WHY? What would have happened if Harris was male?
Even in Minnesota, in Walz's state, while Harris won, Biden won clearer (52 to 45 vs 51 to nearly 47 now, so Trump GAINED against even Walz.
I mean, let's face it, Trump isn't sane. He is 78 now. He bored everyone at his conventions, you can't follow him, he just rants and rables, and I still have no clue what he will do for the economy and the population besides decreasing taxes for people who don't need a tax decrease since they are already obscenely rich. He has absolutely no qualification for the office, the people who worked with him in his first term all distanced themselves from him, even warning openly to vote for him.
So what kind of an explanation do YOU have that after the people in 2020 decided they had enough of Trump, and witnessing him and his lies for 4 years after that suddenly decided that Trump would be fine now? I already told you weeks ago that too many people would vote for the man for the reasons I gave you, and the actual election has affirmed that. NO undecided (that is, people not firm in rep or dem camp) voter should have given Trump their vote again, afther they went from him to Biden in 2020.
It's the only reasonable explanation for this. Harris is a woman. And not even a white woman at that. Quite possible, Harris was the worst possible candiate - way worse than Trump, obviously, which is hard to believe, since you'd think, Trump is bad enough a candidate.
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Salamandre
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Wog refugee
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posted November 06, 2024 09:36 PM |
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You skip the elephant in the room, which is the confrontation between 2 ideologies, wokism and conservatism. Madness vs experience. It has nothing to do with Trump being good as president.
Being woke itself implies awakening, seeing the light of something. This means, in theory, that those who awake become aware of issues that other people are not. But the devil lies in the details. Aristotle explained that in order to find happiness, people should always strive for a balance between 2 extremes. This is the key: balance.
People who are woke strive to be virtuous. They want to be better people and to make a better society. The vast majority of them are righteously motivated, probably. The problem is that in their zeal to fight wrongs and injustice, they go too far, and begin to see problems where there are none. Like you, constantly rant about misogyny or fascism where obviously there is none.
In their zeal to fight racism, they became racists themselves, demanding quotas and spaces reserved only for certain races.
In their zeal to be tolerant, they become intolerant of every idea or voice that may, even to small degree, cause someone somewhere to maybe be offended (this led to the whole cancel culture, and to nonsense concepts like cultural appropriation, misgendering, dead naming, among others).
In their zeal to protect minorities, they protect and defend minorities that are really truly evil (like those defending Hamas, or the thousands white little girls sex trafficking ring in UK that was left alone for years because the perpetrators were Pakistani and the police did not want to appear to be discriminatory).
And this is why all of this is so ironic. They want to be tolerant, but are absolutely intolerant of different views. You said yourself that you don't want any individual voting for Trump close to you, neither in your house, neither in your street. Well, there is a return of boomerang, they are not 10-20, but hundreds of millions so we will have a problem.
In the end, woke is taking a virtue to the extreme, turning it into a vice. And, at same time and since they have good intentions, they see themselves as morally superior to others. Knock knock, anyone?
So :
A lot of people had enough to be constantly called racists because rightfully they ask for regulating immigration. Or being called transphobic because they rightfully see a woman when there is a woman indeed. Called misogynist because they dared criticizing a woman, like it was any person of any sex. Being all day lectured by dishonest and partisan mainstream medias about how they should behave, how to eat, how to talk, what to not say and so. Being labelled as retarded because they worry about pragmatic issues or vote the wrong candidate. Being constantly censured as soon as they brought legitimate concerns the masters don't want to be revealed. Being all day reprimanded about climate change while financially they can't finish the month and kids are hungry. Being dismissed because whites and whiteness, with theirs totally imaginary privileges. Being called a "floating garbage" by the only individual who legally is in charge of their protection and well-being.
And given that Trump took all the hits, non stop, from this multiple heads sprawling woke deep state and not only survived, but came back and overwhelmingly won and humiliated them, it makes him look like the titan he is, worth to follow, support and defend. I doubt 90% of his electors ever read his program, when asked, the majority talk about those ideological issues. Is about resistance to core societal changes they perceive as very dangerous. Never tested before but they promise us it will be fine and just shut up.
You may find those issues as futile, yet a vote is a vote and when there are 100 millions of them, it goes dead serious, you won't make vanish those millions of people just by despising their concerns and playing deaf. Again, balance and compromise are the key.
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JollyJoker
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posted November 06, 2024 10:20 PM |
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You write and write and write - and each time it's the same crappy "anti-woke" crap: Quote:
the confrontation between 2 ideologies, wokism and conservatism. Madness vs experience.
You just don't get that the same people who openly complain about "wokeness" are those who fake and invent the whole overblown crap, start storms on social media and fan the discussions. Since nowadays everyone can organize themselves in groups (internet, social media), minorities can be as loud as the rest of the people. Take an innocuous example - handicapped. When all or most wheelchair users organize and make enough of a fuss via the internet, demanding handicapped-suitable public toilets and lifts to the subway, not only is it their right to do so, they can also make themselves heard.
The same is true for every other minority - and the same is true for every not-even-existing minority. Those things can also be faked.
No one is aiming to change society in mad ways, no one wants boundless immigration, no one wants this extreme crap - this whole "confrontation" is a scam that has really worked well, as you can see.
But change society must, of course, otherwise we will all go down. Climate change is a reality and it already costs immense sums. Have you any idea how many square ckilometers forest burn down each year? The Amazon River is drying out, the list is endless. In my opinion, it's already too late to go back, but that's of course just my opinion. In any case most researchers are pretty sure that even 2.0 degrees more won't be possible anymore.
And there ARE social injustices, there ARE a lot of religious nutcases who insinst on keeping their unjust (and by the way non-compatible with human rights) and ancient social structures, for example.
And whaatever you say about Trump is bollocks. He's no titan, he's still a criminal, a liar, a mysogynist, and what's worse, unqualified and inept.
I don't know ANYone personally in Germany who'd vote for Donald Trump - for exactly those reasons. You cannot a believe a word he says - why would you vote someone you cannot trust to ever tell even one true word?
And what you say about people having enough of this or that is just nonsense as well. Instead, people are TOLD, they should have enough of putting up with anything that's somewhat bothersome because we can all live the way we want, never bother about anything, just doing what we like, because that's our right, and the "other" political parties and interests just want to take away those rights from honest, hard-working people, bla, bla, bla.
Sheer propaganda.
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Blizzard
Adventuring Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
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posted November 06, 2024 10:23 PM |
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Edited by Blizzard at 22:37, 06 Nov 2024.
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@sal
That is pretty well summarized.
It is like an immune disorder. The immune system has an intensely strong reaction to an irritant and the immune response ends up being more destructive to the body than the irritant itself.
I am not a Trump supporter and I will never be a Trump supporter under any circumstance. He is indeed a corrupt man who says a ton of BS things. But, the fact that he won the election is not a mystery and it should not be treated like a mystery. Left-leaning ideologies have taken on a Spanish Inquisition/hyper-judgemental tone in the past decade, including hunting down threats that are more illusionary than concrete in reality, and that has created a reaction from the public. People have lost patience with it, including many liberals.
My advice to the Dems next round is to address issues in the real world. Crime. The environment/public health. Guns (not holding my breath on that one). Employment. Cost of living. Foreign policy. Stuff that will make people want to come out and vote. Stop with the immune disorder stuff.
And yes, ditto for Europe. The UK police ignoring sex trafficking is a good example of this. They are quite literally fearful to enforce the law because of this pathological fear of being racist, and it is pathological because it does not have a grounding in reality. All of this is fuel for the alt right to grow and spread and in a worse case scenario it could unravel more of the EU other than just Britain, which would be bad both for Europe and for the world. What Europe needs at the moment, among other things (namely: people), is an actual army. Basically, something to mirror the United States.
In New York City several months back, there was a news story of a teenage black girl who physically assaulted and spat racial slurs at some tourists in NYC from China. Nobody wanted to prosecute her. That speaks to a broken system when it is fearful to enforce its own laws.
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JollyJoker
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posted November 06, 2024 10:35 PM |
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You guys don't get it. If you look at the world now - suddenly (or not so suddenly, but compared to a dozen years ago) the whole worls is a powder keg. US of A have not been nearer to a civil war since 1865 - and the same is true for many European countries, my own among them.
Do you REALLY think, it's because the overzealous fanatical woke forces of evil are trying to change the world into a concentration camp of wokeness, while the good conservative forces of righteous freedom of expression are trying to stem the woke tide?
And how come that JOE BIDEN 4 years ago has WON against the anti-woke warrior - I mean, you can say a lot about the Democrats, but not that they are mad woke leftists. That's just some Republicans who keep claiming that, but for a European, they are just more liberal than Reps, but still firnly in the capitalist camp.
What hs changed? The Dems gone mad? Conservative Harris wanting to go back to Wade vs. Roe too conservative or what?
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purerogue3
Adventuring Hero
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posted November 06, 2024 10:48 PM |
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Kamala just in her concession speech surprised only to the unrepetant side.
She is thinking good, now I can hang around and 'campaign' for eternity like Trump did so I will have something to do.
But, Obama will be annoyed that she blatantly steals his style, and HE's the damn god father of the DNC - not her.
Besides, if she tried it again she would lose much much worse because everyone ex-lunatics would have moved on to a more sane candidate.
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purerogue3
Adventuring Hero
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posted November 06, 2024 11:00 PM |
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Blizzard said:
In New York City several months back, there was a news story of a teenage black girl who physically assaulted and spat racial slurs at some tourists in NYC from China. Nobody wanted to prosecute her. That speaks to a broken system when it is fearful to enforce its own laws.
Tell me about it. In two weeks in NYC more than twenty yrs ago I experienced 2 racist incidents (blacks ofcourse).
In 3yrs in Chicago - none. The people are completely different.
incidently, in a few months in SF two minor ones (both white, haha shows you who is the repressed minority there).
So it's not a race thing, it's ideologic (=WOKE).
Never thought about race growing up in Canada. Class distinctions are everywhere.
Since we're on the topic. Muslims are mollycoddled in the UK, the opposite of the US. So are Indians and dark people in general. They have no idea how racist the average person is in say, Spain. Like these adults have brains of children.
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Blizzard
Adventuring Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
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posted November 06, 2024 11:31 PM |
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Edited by Blizzard at 23:37, 06 Nov 2024.
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USA has had a major crisis with its borders throughout the Biden administration until relatively recently. That is not because federal agents are inept. It is because the laws were not being enforced, and the reason the laws were not being enforced were ideological, i.e. an irrational fear of being perceived as racist. And where did many of those immigrants go? To cities, which are largely populated by minorities who felt betrayed by the people they voted for, and rightfully so.
And yes, that is DIFFERENT from 10-15 years ago. While Barack Obama was president for the maximum 8 years, border laws were being enforced. Millions of people were deported under Obama's presidency. Under Biden/Harris (as an emotional/woke reaction to Trumpism) those laws were largely neglected. It is an immune disorder.
And that alone quite literally costed them the election, because trust in the administration to enforce laws was lost. If people think that the justice system only cares about certain people and doesn't care about other people (which is antithetical to the entire concept of a justice system) then that is going to create blowback. And sure, Harris repented of the stupidity and made promises at the last second that the border was going to be an actual border going forward, but it is extremely difficult to take her word for it when she was the 2nd highest person in the administration for the past 4 years. It should never have been an issue from the start.
And so, the Dems need to stop overreacting to Trumpism or being baited by Trumpism and just do their jobs. That will restore confidence.
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Stevie
Responsible
Undefeatable Hero
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posted November 07, 2024 12:38 AM |
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Edited by Stevie at 00:45, 07 Nov 2024.
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JollyJoker said:
Do you REALLY think, it's because the overzealous fanatical woke forces of evil are trying to change the world into a concentration camp of wokeness, while the good conservative forces of righteous freedom of expression are trying to stem the woke tide?
Yes, among other things. You may try to paint it as absurd, but it really just boils down to that. People hate woke. It does not work. It gets pushed away.
JollyJoker said:
And whaatever you say about Trump is bollocks. He's no titan, he's still a criminal, a liar, a mysogynist, and what's worse, unqualified and inept.
Sure. Then you should get how much people hate the woke liberal agenda. They're willing to elect a devil like Trump over that. But for some reason you don't want to accept it.
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Corribus
Hero of Order
The Abyss Staring Back at You
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posted November 07, 2024 03:49 AM |
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Edited by Corribus at 03:51, 07 Nov 2024.
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Blizzard said:
And yes, that is DIFFERENT from 10-15 years ago. While Barack Obama was president for the maximum 8 years, border laws were being enforced. Millions of people were deported under Obama's presidency. Under Biden/Harris (as an emotional/woke reaction to Trumpism) those laws were largely neglected. It is an immune disorder.
This is simply not true.
Border statistics can be measured in lots of different ways, and Biden's final numbers are not in yet, but no credible reading of the facts can lead one to conclude that Biden "largely neglected" any border laws. By some measures, border policy under Biden's first years in office was actually tougher than under Trump, and Biden kept many of Trump's policies in place (and got a lot of flak from the left for having done it). There might have been other factors that influenced why Biden deported several times as many illegal immigrants as Trump did over certain timespans (the pandemic certainly had something to do with it), and - like any administration - Biden's border policies can be criticized, but there's just no grounds to say that Biden's administration ignored immigration laws.
A few credible sources:
Cato Institute
Fact Check
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JollyJoker
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posted November 07, 2024 08:50 AM |
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Don't bother, Corribus. They've also forgotten that the Republicans, on Trumps behalf, stopped the Border Bill.
If you read the nonsense touted here about Dems and Harris (not Biden, mind you) stand for "woke", whatever that is, and people - the undecided, not firmly in one camp or another - would vote a criminal liar without any qualification or record like Trump because they don't want woke, then you can only come to one of two conclusions: either they are all thick as bricks, because they buy the garbage the autoritarian right and Trump haven't been tiring to feed them with, or they just didn't want a woman in office (when it comes down to it).
Or maybe it's both, because it would seem, that one goes hand in hand with the other.
Dont' worry when the next elections might be postponed because the electoral roll is hopelessly crammed with frauds, illegal immigrants that have no rights to vote, and other miscreants like ultraleftists, potential terrorists and whatnot and will have to be cleansed, right? And don't worry, if you are not allowed to register anymore because, well, you're an intellectual. Or you have posted somewhere that Trump is a fool. He can't stand that, you know.
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Blizzard
Adventuring Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
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posted November 07, 2024 04:26 PM |
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Edited by Blizzard at 19:18, 07 Nov 2024.
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@Cor
I don't entirely agree. I don't personally put all blame on Biden (though many would), but deportations were down dramatically under Biden compared to Trump or Obama. That's what Wikipedia says (I am not doing deep research on this and I don't honestly want to either). In my vocabulary, deportations are related to law enforcement. The law is never enforced entirely on anything, because government agencies are literally incapable of doing that, but it was being enforced much more under Trump and Obama than it was under Biden, and that created a blowback among Democratic voters in urban areas for example, because the obvious question is then how and where to house the newcomers, among other concerns. Even NYC was angry about it and the mayor was very public about the ridiculousness of the situation.
And it is entirely unfair for the United States to be subjected to a double standard and to be complacent with a border situation that no nation anywhere on planet Earth would find acceptable. There is no nation that would accept the level of undocumented immigrants coming into their borders. None. Every single electorate would push back against it without exception.
Now, for the immigrants who are already here without documentation, if they do not have a criminal record and if they working, then sure, there can and should be a potential path to citizenship. There is no need to make things unnecessarily difficult and to expend even more financial & human resources trying to chase everybody down, especially when there are good odds the migrants will attempt it again, but that doesn't change the fact that Biden did a bad job with the border in the first place. He did a bad job, and that upset people in a lot of neighborhoods.
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purerogue3
Adventuring Hero
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posted November 07, 2024 04:31 PM |
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Blizzard said:
And yes, that is DIFFERENT from 10-15 years ago. While Barack Obama was president for the maximum 8 years, border laws were being enforced. Millions of people were deported under Obama's presidency. Under Biden/Harris (as an emotional/woke reaction to Trumpism) those laws were largely neglected. It is an immune disorder.
No wonder latino for Trump.
Turns out blacks are politically DEAD.
Latinos have no victim culture.
The US will not fracture. The DNC is irrelevant with Obama in the picture.
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purerogue3
Adventuring Hero
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posted November 07, 2024 04:40 PM |
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The concept of "fact check" is like asking Ghost for english lessons.
Things that are real and true are immediately obvious, if you have to ask some random person, who most like likely is the least trustworthy or a moron, then you are guillible.
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purerogue3
Adventuring Hero
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posted November 07, 2024 05:44 PM |
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Who would have thought Biden's peak would be on his way out?
For the first time, I found something admirable in him.
His conduct sells democracy in of itself.
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JollyJoker
Honorable
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posted November 07, 2024 06:14 PM |
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Since the level of brains demonstrated in these last pages has dropped to the level of Trump's campaign ramblings, every further word would be wasted - especially since this thread has served its purpose: no predictions needed anymore.
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Blizzard
Adventuring Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
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posted November 07, 2024 06:21 PM |
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Edited by Blizzard at 19:21, 07 Nov 2024.
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purerogue3 said:
The concept of "fact check" is like asking Ghost for english lessons.
Things that are real and true are immediately obvious, if you have to ask some random person, who most like likely is the least trustworthy or a moron, then you are guillible.
The Cato Institute is a libertarian think tank. It implicitly and explicitly promotes libertarian ideas.
https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/2018/10/never-trust-the-cato-institute
Disclaimer: I will just admit up front that I did not read the entire article I just posted lol, only the first part. Now, I won't say that CATO is a bad website, but it is a website just like any other website. "Fact checking" is almost always/always something that is going to happen in a partisan way, NOT in a non-partisan way.
Biden was lax with deportations and lax with the border in general, and he paid for it on November 5th (or Harris did, rather). There may be other factors that tie into it as well, such as word spreading throughout Mexico & Latin America that things will allegedly be easier with Biden than they were under Trump, and that in itself could cause massive trains of migrants. Whatever factors came into play, the end result is that there has been high disapproval related to the border. And when I say "high disapproval" I mean like 80% public disapproval as of earlier this year. As far as I know it has improved in recent months, but that was too late. It needed to happen from the start because public confidence isn't going to magically rebuild itself in 3 months before the election.
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Blizzard
Adventuring Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
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posted November 07, 2024 06:49 PM |
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Edited by Blizzard at 19:37, 07 Nov 2024.
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@JJ
I love you man. I love you.
Your friend from the beer thread does not remotely share your political views, just so you are aware. You would loathe him just like you loathe the rest of us if he ever opened with you, since you loathe everybody who doesn't agree with you about everything, which is, well, everybody. You want over half of your own countrymen to be in jail because they committed the crime of having an opinion, so it's no surprise your verdict of the US is at minimum just as merciless and spiteful as it is with your own country which you also hate. I might not agree with Sal or Rim or Pol or other people about everything, but I am completely fine having a conversation with them without stewing in rage. You are the opposite of what a free society looks like.
Anyway, I'm guessing this thread is going to be shut down in the near future now that JJ has complained about it (when everybody else except him is having fun) and he probably sent out rage PMs about it already. You know, because I'm sure a person with an autistic personality would believe that since the election has happened, that therefore means the thread needs to be closed down since there is nothing to predict anymore. As if that makes any sense whatsoever to anybody who has graduated 2nd grade. It's just a conversation and it can go on for as long as people feel like, or it should.
It was fun. I had a good time. Cheers.
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JollyJoker
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posted November 07, 2024 08:03 PM |
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The one thing I really hate is stupidity. You know, not the kind of having trouble to add and subtract numbers above ten, but stupidity as in, hey, you knwo immediately what is real and true when you see it: this year it's colder than last, so climate change is a hoax and Earth is flat. And maybe I hate lies.
But I'm not oppossed to having fun, so here's one last thought I had just had. This thing here with Trump, you what I'm reminded of? If you watched Gotham (the TV show), then I'm reminded of Penguin getting mayor, everyone cheering, Penguin grinning lopsidedly.
Sure, Penguin is wittier and more coherent and way cooler than Trump, but unter the hood ... well.
And it's not my intention to get the thread closed down - just continue to have fun and simply predict how things will develop from here. I'm looking forward to Trump announcing funny stuff like, well, NATO States, you can have US protection, just pay 1 billion per day to the US of A - and another billion to me.
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Salamandre
Admirable
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posted November 07, 2024 08:17 PM |
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Pocahontas didn't make it and now you punch around at random. Go ahead, drop the frustration until pulse is back to normal, I get it.
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