|
| Thread: US General Election 2024 Predictions |  This thread is pages long: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 · «PREV |
|
Pol
Known Hero
.^.
|
posted November 07, 2024 08:53 PM |
|
|
@Blizzard
Very good link, I liked it. Though there are methods and also other methods how to (cross) verify, whait is the one saying. Strangely people often don't do that, because of their political convictions is going first.
BTW I do have very similar view like JJ and he certainly is not alone in this boat. You can see it, if you carefully examine this thread. But without saying, the price for the most talkative persion goes to Salamandre. He works like Trump, can argue ad infinitum and don't bother much with reasoning.
|
|
JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
|
|
posted November 07, 2024 08:56 PM |
|
|
Go back to page one and look at my prediction. I was pretty certain Trump would win. It doesn't come as a surprise, but it's pretty disappointing that the US public sees fit to elect a lying criminal who doesn't give a fart about the law, treats women as objects, does his utmost to divide the country and, worst of all, appeals to the worst in people.
He is a disgrace for the office. And, man, if the military is taking the same line you can bet it's true.
|
|
Blizzard
Adventuring Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
|
|
posted November 07, 2024 09:17 PM |
|
Edited by Blizzard at 04:09, 08 Nov 2024.
|
@pol
I gathered that, and that is fine and completely understandable. I expect Trump to be very unpopular in Europe, especially the parts in NATO.
Numerous people in Trump's inner circle have abandoned him, including his own VP from 2016-2020. That says volumes about Trump as a person. I expect the next 4 years to be a roller coaster, although I am not personally concerned with "the death of democracy". I feel extremely confident there will be a presidential election in 4 years just like any other time, and that the midterm elections in 2 years will also change the landscape. I don't buy the doomsday stuff. The one thing I am genuinely unsure about is if Trump will even be alive in 4 years. A lot of people are going to want him dead, and it is very easy to get a firearm in this country.
1 out of 7 US presidents have either been assassinated or had an assassination attempt on them. The 2nd amendment was designed on paper to protect the 1st amendment, but in reality it has threatened the 1st amendment on repeated occasions. And I REALLY do not want Trump to become a martyr.
____________
|
|
JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
|
|
posted November 07, 2024 09:24 PM |
|
|
Speaking of fun, I wonder whether Alison Jackson will be persona non grata in the US, starting next January or whether Trump will offer her a crapton of money if she does the same with, say, Mike Pence. 
|
|
purerogue3
Adventuring Hero
|
|
posted November 07, 2024 10:11 PM |
|
|
Blizzard said:
The Cato Institute is a libertarian think tank. It implicitly and explicitly promotes libertarian ideas.
..
Biden was lax with deportations and lax with the border in general, and he paid for it on November 5th (or Harris did, rather). There may be other factors that tie into it as well, such as word spreading throughout Mexico & Latin America that things will allegedly be easier with Biden than they were under Trump, and that in itself could cause massive trains of migrants. Whatever factors came into play, the end result is that there has been high disapproval related to the border. And when I say "high disapproval" I mean like 80% public disapproval as of earlier this year. As far as I know it has improved in recent months, but that was too late. It needed to happen from the start because public confidence isn't going to magically rebuild itself in 3 months before the election.
That would be like asking Victoria Nuland for an objective opinion on Ukraine.
It's funny how the actualy border crossing figures show reality much better as a person's public protestations on the subject are belied by what (they allow) actually happens.
|
|
purerogue3
Adventuring Hero
|
|
posted November 07, 2024 10:16 PM |
|
|
Blizzard said:
Numerous people in Trump's inner circle have abandoned him, including his own VP from 2016-2020. That says volumes about Trump as a person. I expect the next 4 years to be a roller coaster, although I am not personally concerned with "the death of democracy". I feel extremely confident there will be a presidential election in 4 years just like any other time, and that the midterm elections in 2 years will also change the landscape. I don't buy the doomsday stuff. The one thing I am genuinely unsure about is if Trump will even be alive in 4 years. A lot of people are going to want him dead, and it is very easy to get a firearm in this country.
His old personality was to stick to sycophants and personal loyalty, also people whoat wouldn't threaten his personal vanity - leading to mass defections, but where are any of those people now?
This time, if he follows his gut more as he did with Vance he couldn't pick worse.
|
|
Blizzard
Adventuring Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
|
|
posted November 09, 2024 08:53 PM |
|
Edited by Blizzard at 21:14, 09 Nov 2024.
|
@JJ
I doubt there will be installed NATO payments, but tariffs on goods will be a thing with the possible exception of the UK, which the Trump team is currently talking about providing an exemption for.
It was originally tariffs on stuff like steel and aluminum but it might also include things like cars and industrial equipment in the near future, or a baseline 10-20% tariff on imports as a means to replace the federal income tax. That is what is being talked about.
So, lower taxes and more expensive goods, with American-made products being indirectly incentivized for the consumer. And of course, all of this will be shaking up the stock market with anticipated winners and losers under the new tariff system.
|
|
JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
|
|
posted November 09, 2024 10:44 PM |
|
|
You know that's nonsense, because the non-American car-manufacturers like BMW have factories in the US, but are still supposed to be tarriffed.
Anyway. No reason to predict anything and then argue about it. We'll see what happens.
|
|
Blizzard
Adventuring Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
|
|
posted November 10, 2024 09:49 PM |
|
|
|
Which party do you usually vote for? (I'm kind of curious because a cousin and her family live in Dusseldorf).
|
|
purerogue3
Adventuring Hero
|
|
posted November 11, 2024 12:36 AM |
|
|
amazing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWPPSu2RHuc
|
|
Corribus
Hero of Order
The Abyss Staring Back at You
|
|
posted November 11, 2024 12:41 AM |
|
|
Blizzard said:
The 2nd amendment was designed on paper to protect the 1st amendment,
Funny, I thought our mutual respect for the Constitution and the rule of law was supposed to do that.
____________
I'm sick of following my dreams. I'm just going to ask them where they're goin', and hook up with them later. -Mitch Hedberg
|
|
JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
|
|
posted November 11, 2024 01:18 AM |
|
|
Blizzard said:
Which party do you usually vote for? (I'm kind of curious because a cousin and her family live in Dusseldorf).
I have no party I usually vote for, it depends on the personnel, but these last terms I was in the Green camp.
You probably can imagine that I would on principle NEVER vote a party calling itself CHRISTIAN Democratic Union. What's that got to do with anything? Is Christian Democracy different from any other kind? And there isn't even a united Christian front. I mean, there are grave differences between Christian denominations - so what does that even mean, "Christian"?
|
|
Blizzard
Adventuring Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
|
|
posted November 11, 2024 02:44 AM |
|
Edited by Blizzard at 16:24, 11 Nov 2024.
|
Corribus said:
Funny, I thought our mutual respect for the Constitution and the rule of law was supposed to do that.
Not if it is antagonistic to achieving its own purpose (securing the rights named in tbe 1st amendment), and the 2nd amendment is antagonistic to the 1st amendment.
Like, Trump was 1 centimeter away from not being the next president, and that was a direct result of bad laws that don't serve their intended purpose (okay, and admittedly, the Secret Service were also being incompetent that day). It isn't just political figures. Citizens in general are at greater risk expressing their 1st amendment rights than they otherwise would be. And when have gun rights ever saved us from tyranny? The Confederates used those rights to keep people in a state of slavery, along with other reasons. The 2nd amendment does the opposite of what it is suppose to do. Well-intentioned, for sure, but not bright.
edit: I'll clarify Corribus: the negative consequences of not following the rule of law are exceedingly worse than the negative consequences of following the rule of law. I realize that the constitution says what it says, and people should practice good citizenship. But, since it is not well-written on that particular issue, there are likewise negative consequences that come with following the rule of law, since one amendment in the Bill of Rights is harmful to another one. Guns have been a uniquely serious problem in the United States, and that is because they are incorrectly classified as a public good/asset to society rather than a liability, which is what they are. If you slap an incorrect label on something (either maliciously or in this case as an honest mistake), then that will have consequences.
____________
|
|
Blizzard
Adventuring Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
|
|
posted November 11, 2024 02:59 AM |
|
Edited by Blizzard at 04:46, 11 Nov 2024.
|
@jj
Ecumenicism, I suppose. Central Europe was kind of a forerunner with it back in the day. Christian Democrats from Catholic and Lutheran and Calvinist backgrounds built the EU in large part, though the party name has lost much of its original meaning. I kind of pinned that you were a Green voter since you seem to strongly support funding Ukraine and the BSW does not. And I'm assuming you think the AfD are insane.
A constitutional law putting a cap on national debt seems very strange to me (and this is coming from somebody who hates national debt). It really sucks what it led to, but things will be put back together I am sure.
|
|
JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
|
|
posted November 11, 2024 09:34 AM |
|
|
The AfD wants to undermine and destabilize the current political system and eventually replace it with a more autoritharian one.
Cap on national debt isn't absolute in the sense that there are exceptions that would allow lifting it and with the Ukraine war still going on you can make an easy point that there are valid reasons to make an exception - but not for everyone in the current (and failed not exclusively because of that but also because of that) government.
Debt isn't what it was a couple decades ago.
|
|
Blizzard
Adventuring Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
|
|
posted November 11, 2024 04:06 PM |
|
|
|
Blizzard
Adventuring Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
|
|
posted November 11, 2024 08:33 PM |
|
|
Joe Biden might step down before January so that Kamala can be president.
I really need to go back into retirement.
|
|
|
|
