|
|
blizzardboy
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
Nerf Herder
|
posted February 09, 2017 11:24 PM |
|
|
In a world of 7 billion, "a lot of people" could mean almost anything. You just type something in Google and you'll find somebody presenting a view. You look up and read that information and develop a belief that it is the ubiquitous view in a field, when really you're just reading a tiny bubble of interviews in one of the billions of corners in the internet. It is patently false that AI designing AI is in the near future; or the person is using a very liberal interpretation of "near". The most advanced computers we have are less advanced than one of the trillions of bacteria living in our gut. A machine that can perform a billion computations at once, in the big picture, isn't really impressive at all, although it is useful for data computation. Functionally, a computer hasn't changed too much since the time of Turing: mostly the algorithms are piling up and getting longer. In some sense, technology has developed a sort of cultist atmosphere: it's not too different from people in the 60s thinking we're going to be cruising around in flying cars. They don't understand that technology hits blocks that can bottleneck advancement for decades, or a technology might not be practical. We could have flying cars but the average person isn't stupid enough to go broke trying to pay for it, maintain it ,and fuel it, therefore companies don't produce them except in small quantities for the very wealthy. Then the opposite: in another area a field might expand rapidly when few people predicted it. That's because if R&D were predictable, it wouldn't be research. One of the things holding up cell phones, for example, is that battery technology sucks.
People say extraordinary things more because they are excited than because they are giving accurate/objective information. Many of these same people also probably read books & watch movies related to AI.
____________
"Folks, I don't trust children. They're here to replace us."
|
|
JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
|
|
posted February 09, 2017 11:32 PM |
|
|
artu said:
Well, a lot of people who specify in computer software seem to disagree and estimate we will have AI designing AI in the near future. It's not Star Trek.
Fake news.
You know that when you consider that we don't know how the brain works and what "intelligence" even is (and creativity), which means "ARTIFICIAL intelligence is a bit like "artificial dark matter".
Look, there are countless INTERESTING stories about this, but the minute we CAN create real AI, we will also be able to create "bodies" for them so they can be mobile, and the minute we do that we are God, and the minute we are God we'll throw the AIs out of paradise - or vice versa.
It's just on the same level of speculation as a galactic federation.
|
|
artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
|
|
posted February 09, 2017 11:38 PM |
|
|
|
Your marriage consular won't be Hal 9000 five years from now, and I'm not talking about a sudden switch. But AI replacing not just basic labor but also management sector occupations is not something as beyond the horizon as traveling to other galaxies. I'm not talking about computers conquering our civilization, that I don't see happening for a completely different reason: They are not capable of any desire. But advances on AI will affect employment in the future, not just basic labor, that's not far fetched.
|
|
JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
|
|
posted February 09, 2017 11:45 PM |
|
|
That has been happening as long as there are computers. And in the end a computer is a machine like every other. If you think about, is's completely logical; after a time of machines not only replacing humans doing PHYSICAL labor, but also doing physical labor humans would never be capable of, it's now the time that we also create machines that replace humans doing mental labor - but also doing mental labor humans would never be capable of.
That's called progress. We do not want to LABOR.
|
|
AlexSpl
Responsible
Supreme Hero
|
|
posted February 09, 2017 11:45 PM |
|
|
|
AI is a hoax. A part of a system cannot create a new system. Get along with it. Our brains are more than just (A)I. And our most brilliant inventions impress no one, but ourselves. We even don't know who we are and why we here. I think we are hostages of our very nature.
|
|
blizzardboy
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
Nerf Herder
|
|
posted February 09, 2017 11:50 PM |
|
|
If intelligent/creative 'machines' really were to exist one day, it is doubtful they would be silicon or graphene or some other composite material, or at least a hybrid of inorganic and organic. The most advanced structural platforms that exist in the world are organic: i.e. human beings, or other animal life, which have functions that literally can be broken down to a subatomic level. So, these future beings would probably be more analogous to the Zerg overmind.
We don't even have a concrete understanding of what "intelligence" or "creative" or even "autonomous" means, but if such a being were any of those things, then we will have successfully made ourselves obsolete, unless extreme expansive "controls" were in place to limit it, but then such controls speak of the limitations of the device itself. If it were simple enough for us to understand & control it in such a way, then it wouldn't be complex enough to be what you wanted it to be. It's why our own minds, so far, are one of the most elusive things in science. If it were easy to understand, then we ourselves would be far simpler.
edit: Mexico Wall Visas Justice Department Trump California North Dakota Pipeline
____________
"Folks, I don't trust children. They're here to replace us."
|
|
artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
|
|
posted February 09, 2017 11:57 PM |
|
|
JJ said:
but the minute we CAN create real AI, we will also be able to create "bodies" for them so they can be mobile
That line of thinking is similar to how people, when first producing automobiles, based their designs on chariots out of habit. You had a lot of car designs as if a horse was about to be attached to it:
AI doesn't need a body to be mobile, they will be mobile on the cloud.
And once again, labor is not ONLY labor, it's also employment. In the near future, there will of course be employment exclusive to humans only, don't take this in absolute terms. But a lot of mental skills that can be efficiently replaced by AI + a growing population will cause some problems and we certainly won't be able to work for an hour and drink martinis for the rest of our lives.
____________
Are you pretty? This is my occasion. - Ghost
|
|
AlexSpl
Responsible
Supreme Hero
|
|
posted February 10, 2017 12:07 AM |
|
|
|
We are new dinosaurs. Or... we are former Martians and Venusians. Or... we are beloved children of God. Who knows?
|
|
artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
|
|
posted February 10, 2017 12:09 AM |
|
|
|
God prefers martian brunettes, zhe is weird.
|
|
Blizzardboy
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
Nerf Herder
|
|
posted February 10, 2017 12:24 AM |
|
|
artu said:
JJ said:
but the minute we CAN create real AI, we will also be able to create "bodies" for them so they can be mobile
That line of thinking is similar to how people, when first producing automobiles, based their designs on chariots out of habit. You had a lot of car designs as if a horse was about to be attached to it:
AI doesn't need a body to be mobile, they will be mobile on the cloud.
And once again, labor is not ONLY labor, it's also employment. In the near future, there will of course be employment exclusive to humans only, don't take this in absolute terms. But a lot of mental skills that can be efficiently replaced by AI + a growing population will cause some problems and we certainly won't be able to work for an hour and drink martinis for the rest of our lives.
"Body" isn't an exclusive term but a computer can direct and control 10000 different bodies or robotics.
____________
"Folks, I don't trust children. They're here to replace us."
|
|
artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
|
|
posted February 10, 2017 12:39 AM |
|
Edited by artu at 01:09, 10 Feb 2017.
|
Correct. There would have to be a hardware somewhere but not "bodies" that are numbers of robots looking like C3 PO.
____________
Are you pretty? This is my occasion. - Ghost
|
|
Salamandre
Admirable
Omnipresent Hero
Wog refugee
|
|
posted February 10, 2017 12:40 AM |
|
|
artu said:
we certainly won't be able to work for an hour and drink martinis for the rest of our lives.
Also is worth mentioning that those working -usually 50% of people, create wealth for the other half to survive -elders, youths, students, unemployed etc. I just took a quick look at my salary card, as everything is dully noted and detailed and it shows about 1/10 of income is automatically retired and going to this solidarity fund (RSA in France). Which means every french (and probably everywhere this system is in place) employed works ~40 days/year only for the others, also this is outside the taxes which will come later. Combined with taxes, it gives that, for the median employee, all that he works from January until April is for the others and the state exclusively.
Then in France, taxes can go up to 85% (thanks socialists) so some -a few- work from January up to November for others, exclusively. We are not even close of one hour then a martini, robots can't be robbed taxed.
____________
Era II mods and utilities
|
|
AlexSpl
Responsible
Supreme Hero
|
|
posted February 10, 2017 12:53 AM |
|
Edited by AlexSpl at 00:59, 10 Feb 2017.
|
|
Can we teach ourselves to be an AI? So why do you believe that we can teach someone(thing) else? Now I think you confuse AI with a very sophisticated algorithm.
|
|
artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
|
|
posted February 10, 2017 01:04 AM |
|
|
AlexSpl said:
Can we teach ourselves to be an AI? So why do you believe that we can teach someone else? Now I think you confuse AI with a very sophisticated algorithm.
Your question is wrong, so you can't have a correct answer. You can't teach yourself to be artificial because you are organic to begin with.
"Can something inorganic be capable of genuine learning, not memorizing, no matter who (an organic specie) produced it?"
I can't give a straightforward "no" to that.
|
|
Blizzardboy
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
Nerf Herder
|
|
posted February 10, 2017 01:24 AM |
|
|
artu said:
JJ said:
but the minute we CAN create real AI, we will also be able to create "bodies" for them so they can be mobile
That line of thinking is similar to how people, when first producing automobiles, based their designs on chariots out of habit. You had a lot of car designs as if a horse was about to be attached to it:
I think the pioneering engineers were smart enough to know a front guard wouldn't be a bad idea, but technology is built for people and people with the first cars, while standing out, wouldn't have wanted to stand out too much. That automobile is less alien to the people of the time. For any inventor that isn't anti-social (some of whom were/are) they aren't going to lose sight of gaining public interest.
____________
"Folks, I don't trust children. They're here to replace us."
|
|
AlexSpl
Responsible
Supreme Hero
|
|
posted February 10, 2017 01:26 AM |
|
|
|
I don't see any connections between inorganic and AI. Can we teach ourselves how to teach ourselves?
|
|
artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
|
|
posted February 10, 2017 01:55 AM |
|
|
@bb
It's more about embedded conventions than it's about not to scare people off.
____________
Are you pretty? This is my occasion. - Ghost
|
|
Blizzardboy
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
Nerf Herder
|
|
posted February 10, 2017 02:00 AM |
|
|
Maybe they're interconnected, but new technology always needs to consider not making its customers look like asshats. I.e. Google glass.
____________
"Folks, I don't trust children. They're here to replace us."
|
|
JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
|
|
posted February 10, 2017 08:54 AM |
|
|
I don't see what the issue of artificial intelligence has to do with US politics.
And, artu, I'm sorry, but this is all COMPLETE speculation. The only thing that we can be safe of is, that a lot of jobs has gone extinct already. If you go back a thousand years and have the discussion then, you'll come to the same result you come to now: if we have agricultural "machines" who do alle the agriculture, and if clothes and utility stuff isn't made anymore by craftsmen, but by "factories" with only a couple people supvervising things, then no one will have work and no one will be able to buy anything.
Doesn't happen. Just look around. Same process is going on, it just has accelerated.
Then there is the SO-CALLED artificial intelligence. First of all the name is crap, because if it IS intelligence then there is nothing artificial there, because - remember - the Turing test says, you shouldn't be able to differentiate them.
Personally, I think the discussion is silly. It's as if we were able to carve rocking horses and wonder what it would be to carve real living horses out of it. It's science fiction without any foundation, because, I repeat, we have no idea what intelligence actually is, and it's pretty darn difficult to reproduce something you have no clue about.
But suppose we COULD eventually create something like that - why would we build an AUTONOMOUS AI. In MY opinion we'd use the technology - and all related - to enhance US. Make US more than we are. Add storage capacity to the brain. Support processors. Increase OUR intelligence ... Keep in mind, we use "robot technology" for ersatz limbs.
In any case your thinking is much too conventional. It's actually a fairly simple equation. In earlier times people worked basically their whole waking life exclusively for naked survival. If you leave out slave labor, you can see that the net working time people had just to survive has decreased a lot, slowly first, but once it got going, always faster. Today, even on average globally, the time people work just for naked survival is rather small. People work for a lot more than just naked survival, and that's what PROGRESS and its acceleration is actually all about. The less you have to work for naked survival, the more room there is for fancy ideas.
If that is supposed to be discussed anymore I suggest a different thread.
|
|
artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
|
|
posted February 10, 2017 09:07 AM |
|
|
|
Started the thread, go ahead.
|
|
|
|
This Popular Thread is pages long: 
