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artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
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posted June 24, 2016 02:19 AM |
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UK's EU referendum
The results are not 100 percent clear yet but it looks like UK is going to exit the EU. How do you think this will affect the future of EU? Do you think it will start a trend to put it to vote in other members or do you think UK's position was exceptional anyway?
If you live in a country that is a member of the EU, would you want it to exit the Union or at least put it to vote like they did in Britain?
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Are you pretty? This is my occasion. - Ghost
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Elodin
Promising
Legendary Hero
Free Thinker
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posted June 24, 2016 02:41 AM |
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If the UK leaves I say good for them. A nation can't be a soverign nation if they can't even control immigration.
I have read there is a "leave" movement in France and Germany as well.
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Revelation
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Salamandre
Admirable
Omnipresent Hero
Wog refugee
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posted June 24, 2016 03:07 AM |
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France voted "NO" to EU -by national referendum, 10 years ago, yet disconnected from reality and contemptuous leaders betrayed people's choice and forced the adhesion. In this context, leaving EU can ONLY be the first sensed thing to do.
But wait and see. The UK people were so long brainwashed by omnipotent medias that it is not sure they will have enough voices to exit.
This is what happens when you give same democratic power to students leaving in mum basement as to family owners, who actually pay taxes and see their monthly income being diluted by foreign laws created by foreign officials we never elected and whose name we don't even know.
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Era II mods and utilities
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blizzardboy
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
Nerf Herder
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posted June 24, 2016 05:43 AM |
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Markets will react negatively when a bunch of trade deals need to be renegotiated all at once. Europe, as a geopolitical entity, will be weaker and not quite as respected.
There's a good possibility there will be a Swexit and a Grexit, both for different reasons. Sweden had astounding openness to taking in such large numbers of migrants, but that only reflects one half of the coin. They are rich and, like Norway, a lot of the public doesn't want bogged down with the unwashed masses outside of their sterile landscape. Not entirely hard to understand; it's a normal, human reaction. And then Greece because they're becoming radicalized - somewhat analogous to 1920s Germany but to a less extreme degree - and they are looking for something, anything, that is different from the status quo. Mad dogs.
I don't think the entire EU is going to fall apart. As a somewhat detached outsider I'm pro-EU, but in my opinion - and of course it's all speculation - a Brexit will be beneficial for the long-term health of the EU because it's sort of that "oh ****" wake-up call for them. Economists have been saying since the 80s - before it was much of an issue - that having a Union where's there's joint currency but not joint accountability isn't going to work. The 2000s happened, and when things went south, the public was surprised, but most experts weren't.
Somehow, the EU needs to become more federalized, but in the current climate where the average European voter has backslided in receptiveness to this compared to the 90s, it doesn't look like it's going to happen in the near future. There's another temporary dark period ahead from the looks of it. As Mr. Johnson has been saying, the takeover of Europe by a single power will have to wait for another day.
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"Folks, I don't trust children. They're here to replace us."
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Zenofex
Responsible
Legendary Hero
Kreegan-atheist
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posted June 24, 2016 07:28 AM |
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First, even if they vote to leave, they won't leave immediately.
Second, if they vote to stay, it won't be for long.
Third, if they vote to stay, Cameron & crew will go to Brussels and say "Look, nearly half of us voted to leave which is a clear sign that you're continuously ****ing up and should give us more exceptions and special cases to play with every time we don't like your decisions". Which will just irritate the other members even more, especially those who at least try to maintain the façade of adhering to the common rules.
Fourth, if they vote to leave, UK will still maintain strong economic ties to the EU (what's left of it), frankly little will change there. They will never accept the euro and some of the common policies anyway.
UK leaving the EU will have much greater ideological impact than anything else. Other members are shaking and the overall climate leans toward dissatisfaction from the EU decisions, especially during the last few years. Germany is not a trusted leader any more, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Greece are in deep financial ****, most of Eastern Europe hangs between its EU allegiance and ties to Russia. Turkey tries to blackmail everyone and Russia will try to restore some lost positions out of the mess. If the UK leaves, everyone will get the impression that the EU is falling apart which may accelerate the process.
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artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
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posted June 24, 2016 07:42 AM |
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Zenofex said:
First, even if they vote to leave, they won't leave immediately.
Second, if they vote to stay, it won't be for long.
What I get from this comment is, you think the EU has no long-term solidarity but a short-term necessity between the members to stick to each other for a little while?
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Are you pretty? This is my occasion. - Ghost
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Ebonheart
Famous Hero
Rush the rush
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posted June 24, 2016 07:51 AM |
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Now starts a very interesting period of time.
But remember folks, this was just the brexit.
In the autumn, the true choice will be made - Trump or Hillary.
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The_Polyglot
Promising
Supreme Hero
channeling capybara energy
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posted June 24, 2016 08:03 AM |
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EU is snowed. More power to USA, China, Japan.
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Friend-shaped
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artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
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posted June 24, 2016 08:08 AM |
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Ebonheart said:
Now starts a very interesting period of time.
But remember folks, this was just the brexit.
In the autumn, the true choice will be made - Trump or Hillary.
Oh come on, to reduce world politics into what U.S. does and that only... They determine a lot, nobody can deny that. But to explain everything by their choices, it must feel as light as a feather! Europe is just a puppet, we have all this educated population and economic maneuver space but that only matters when it's time to complain. When globalism sucks, it's all about the Americans?
Maybe, if half the Europeans here were as interested in the Brexit as they were interested in Trump versus Clinton, they'd have less to complain about.
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Are you pretty? This is my occasion. - Ghost
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fuChris
Promising
Supreme Hero
Master to the Speed of Light
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posted June 24, 2016 08:14 AM |
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No wonder the referendum was the method of choice the Nazi party in Germany used to come to power. Such a dangerous tool.
Cameron really blundered into this one and royally snowed the country over. Not that this is something new because ever since Thatcher the people have been snowed repeatedly leading to the now obvious result.
Britain stands alone today.
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"Now I am become Chris, the destroyer of worlds." - Robert Oppenheimer.
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JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
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posted June 24, 2016 08:23 AM |
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The betting offices pay only 1.17 for a brexit and the stock exchanges have gone up expecting the Brits to stay.
The EU is the only way to go. The problem is, that you cannot have both independent, souvereign countries AND a working union of those, so if the EU is supposed to work, the countries have to surrender some power to the union government - ask the US or Germany or every other country organized that way.
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Ebonheart
Famous Hero
Rush the rush
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posted June 24, 2016 08:25 AM |
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artu said:
Oh come on, to reduce world politics into what U.S. does and that only... They determine a lot, nobody can deny that. But to explain everything by their choices, it must feel as light as a feather! Europe is just a puppet, we have all this educated population and economic maneuver space but that only matters when it's time to complain. When globalism sucks, it's all about the Americans?
Maybe, if half the Europeans here were as interested in the Brexit as they were interested in Trump versus Clinton, they'd have less to complain about.
Oh come on, Artu, can't you see? It's not about the US politics, it's about the economy finally crashing in perhaps a 1929 style!
And I do say, it is intriguing!
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Gryphs
Supreme Hero
The Clever Title
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posted June 24, 2016 08:28 AM |
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JollyJoker said:
The EU is the only way to go. The problem is, that you cannot have both independent, souvereign countries AND a working union of those, so if the EU is supposed to work, the countries have to surrender some power to the union government - ask the US or Germany or every other country organized that way.
That is a lot to ask when every "state" has a long history as an independent nation.
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"Don't resist the force. Redirect it. Water over rock."-blizzardboy
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artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
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posted June 24, 2016 08:35 AM |
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Gryphs said:
JollyJoker said:
The EU is the only way to go. The problem is, that you cannot have both independent, souvereign countries AND a working union of those, so if the EU is supposed to work, the countries have to surrender some power to the union government - ask the US or Germany or every other country organized that way.
That is a lot to ask when every "state" has a long history as an independent nation.
Very solid point, it is a lot to ask. But it's not irrational or utopian. History of Europe is also the history of provinces that united and they all had their concerns back in the day also.
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Are you pretty? This is my occasion. - Ghost
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Gryphs
Supreme Hero
The Clever Title
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posted June 24, 2016 08:43 AM |
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Edited by Gryphs at 08:44, 24 Jun 2016.
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I never said it was irrational it is just going to be a lot harder. I mean in the US the states had barely been independent a few years and they still struggled to get the Constitution by, plus a civil war later to determine no one could leave. With nations and the nationalism they bring it is going to be incredibly difficult, unless there is some outside force helping it along.
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"Don't resist the force. Redirect it. Water over rock."-blizzardboy
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fuChris
Promising
Supreme Hero
Master to the Speed of Light
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posted June 24, 2016 08:49 AM |
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Ebonheart said:
Oh come on, Artu, can't you see? It's not about the US politics, it's about the economy finally crashing in perhaps a 1929 style!
And I do say, it is intriguing!
Sorry to break it to you but that is not how the economy works. We already had a 1929 style crash and that was in 2008. What we have now is that the UK is gonna go into a recession which ultimately the lower classes will suffer from since the are, unlike the upper class, not recession proof.
House prices will ultimately drop so that is a good thing but the finance sector will simply move to Frankfurt and be done with it. Anyways Britain is slowly but surely losing any remaining influence it had in global matters and is giving it willingly to Germany who don't really need it themselves but have to take it 'cos no one else feels up to taking a leading role.
All in all the EU is going to end up a stronger union either way as a result of this. It will make the rest of us stick together more since the politicians in Brussels will be collectively snowting their pants right now and will be more willing to compromise instead of only listening to lobbyists. In fact countries like Greece may end up benefiting from this since the EU will be more willing to go out of its way to keep them in.
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"Now I am become Chris, the destroyer of worlds." - Robert Oppenheimer.
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artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
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posted June 24, 2016 08:51 AM |
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Edited by artu at 08:53, 24 Jun 2016.
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@Gryphs
Ok, then let me ask it this way. What is the categorical difference between Texas and Prussia or the Republic of Genova? There are many historical differences, of course. But the "nation states" you mention are mostly younger than "the United States" chronologically.
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Are you pretty? This is my occasion. - Ghost
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Gryphs
Supreme Hero
The Clever Title
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posted June 24, 2016 08:58 AM |
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Edited by Gryphs at 08:58, 24 Jun 2016.
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artu said:
Ok, then let me ask it this way. What is the categorical difference between Texas and Prussia or the Republic of Genova? There are many historical differences, of course. But the "nation states" you mention are mostly younger than "the United States" chronologically.
Prussia and the Republic of Genoa (I assume? I have never heard of Genova) no longer exist so I am unsure what you are asking. If you are referring to the short time Texas was a nation keep in mind it had no national history or identity like European nations have today.
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"Don't resist the force. Redirect it. Water over rock."-blizzardboy
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Ebonheart
Famous Hero
Rush the rush
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posted June 24, 2016 09:08 AM |
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fuChris said:
Sorry to break it to you but that is not how the economy works. We already had a 1929 style crash and that was in 2008.
Sorry to break it to you, but if you compared the data you will find that the 2008 crash was not even close to a 1929 crash but since then, the borrowing and market overvalue has increased drastically. And everytime there has been a 8Y presidential election, the economy has gone down. It's the uncertainty.
fuChris said:
What we have now is that the UK is gonna go into a recession which ultimately the lower classes will suffer from since the are, unlike the upper class, not recession proof.
Only time will tell what will happen for them, but all the countries are at risk regardless if in the EU or not.
fuChris said:
House prices will ultimately drop so that is a good thing
It is good but it won't come without blood due to the high levels of debt tied to them.
fuChris said:
All in all the EU is going to end up a stronger union either way as a result of this. It will make the rest of us stick together more since the politicians in Brussels will be collectively snowting their pants right now and will be more willing to compromise instead of only listening to lobbyists.
Yeeeeeaaah!...or not.
fuChris said:
In fact countries like Greece may end up benefiting from this since the EU will be more willing to go out of its way to keep them in.
Using what money exactly? Borrowed money? I fear that will be hard in the future.
But now I'm going to get some icecream and celebrate, enjoy!
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Salamandre
Admirable
Omnipresent Hero
Wog refugee
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posted June 24, 2016 09:11 AM |
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One word: immigration.
People from Europe feel solidary each other, but they will continue to refuse anything which dilutes their identity. Thats the reason of Brexit, and will be the reason of Frexit and whatever. And is also the reason east countries prefer leaving EU. Nobody cares about economical equations it doesn't understand anyway.
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