|
|
JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
|
posted June 20, 2020 08:32 AM |
|
|
Aren't you all forgetting that there wasn't known a lot about the virus a couple of months ago?
The way the authorities explained it in Germany, there were two main ideas behind the lockdown:
1) Playing for time to gain more info and find ways to help seriously affected people in the short run and a vaccine in the long run;
2) Avoid a collaps of the health system (and we saw partial collapses, for example in New York, Lombardy and Madrid).
NOW we know a lot more and I don't think that in the European countries another lockdown will be necessary. Of course another lockdown would also be devastating, so it better won't be necessary indeed. However, there will be no mass events, especially not in closed rooms, probably the whole year long.
If you look at what happens in Brazil, 55K new infections in one day, and also in the US, now at 30K again, it's a bit frightening, and that is not considering Africa, where nothing will happen and people will just die.
Immunity seems to be quite fleeting as well...
|
|
Zenofex
Responsible
Legendary Hero
Kreegan-atheist
|
|
posted June 20, 2020 02:14 PM |
|
Edited by Zenofex at 14:17, 20 Jun 2020.
|
When the European countries started applying lockdowns - full or partial - there already was enough information from China that the mortality rate is much higher among groups which are by default vulnerable to infectious diseases, than among what would normally call the healthy people. Italy, which was and to some extent still is used as a prime example about what would happen if you don't quarantine everyone, confirmed that trend from the beginning. 80-year old people, people with cancers, heart attacks, AIDS, etc. dying suddenly became a headline while several months ago that was just everyday's life.
How many people are infected is not a synonym of how many people are sick - this number tells you how many are positively tested and nothing else. How accurate are the tests is still, at the very least, debatable. It could even turn out that the so-called asymptomatic cases are just false positives and the virus is far less infectious than officially stated. Some countries have already reported that the tests they have been sent are rubbish. Frankly, all the available information about the accuracy of these tests sounds more or less like this. A more objective metric is the mortality rate compared to what you normally have for the given time of the year (and not just last year), but you have to subtract from it the increase of mortality caused by the lockdown which few sane politicians will encourage, especially in countries where the death rate has not been significantly increased.
But anyway, if the whole thing was to "buy time for studying the virus", then it sets a dangerous precedent that whenever a new (unknown) infectious disease appears, no matter how dangerous it appears to be for the general population, the response could be "lock yourself and wait for a few months until doctors find if that thing can kill you". This "pandemic" proved that it doesn't take a Spanish influenza level of mortality or even something dozens of times less frightening to scare a large number of people. On the other hand, if a truly dangerous disease appears, the overblown response to COVID could make people who don't believe the information served to them now due to the huge number of inconsistencies practically ignore the warnings and make things worse.
|
|
JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
|
|
posted June 20, 2020 03:32 PM |
|
|
Avoiding collaps of the health system was a real concern - the high numbers of dead people in Italy, Spain, France and the UK show that. If infections spread too fast, which they did in these countries, and the health system reaches the point where it's overburdened, people die needlessly.
Also, in Italy a lot of doctors and medics died, actually, quite possibly due to working without appropriate equipment and being overexposed to the virus (age not mattering).
But most dangerous (and wrong) is the idea that only old people and those with a serious illness would die. It seems, the amount of exposure matters. Also, your immune system must not overreact, because it's the immune system that does the inflaming, not the virus.
|
|
JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
|
|
posted June 20, 2020 03:34 PM |
|
|
OhforfSake said:
JJ said:
Immunity seems to be quite fleeting as well...
The media of my country has run a story that Sweden aims for immunity. I don't know if this is true, but to me it sounds like a really uncomfortable strategy when seeing the catastrophe Italy went through.
The length of immunity seems to depend on how serious the infection was.
|
|
Zenofex
Responsible
Legendary Hero
Kreegan-atheist
|
|
posted June 21, 2020 12:37 PM |
|
|
Yes, protecting the health system from overload was advertised as one of the main goals but Italy so far is the only country which has had serious problems in that regard, which also includes the countries which introduced light-to-no restrictions. And it also backfires badly, because you practically dedicate it to a single disease and all other diseases, no matter how lethal they are, take a back seat. In my country all planned surgeries and other non-urgent operations, health checks and such were postponed, blocks from hospitals or entire hospitals were temporarily closed because a single person gave positive test result, emergencies stopped receiving patients and others of his kind, I suppose this is the case in other countries as well. I know of people who were in critical condition and were refused access to the hospital almost until the end and could get there only through alerting medias, bringing the case to someone important and other connections-related bull****. There is an ongoing scandal at the moment that some hospitals refuse new patients if they don't have a negative test for corona-virus.
And yes, there could be people who die without having a truckload of health issues but they are very few compared to the other groups. You could also die from pneumonia caused by type A or B flu - one such almost killed me when I was 2 according to my parents. The medical workers in Italy were overexposed and exhausted, I have not seen a report about their overall health condition and age structure so you can't just assume they were a bunch of healthy people who got overwhelmed by the virus.
|
|
JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
|
|
posted June 21, 2020 12:59 PM |
|
|
Your sources are not correct. Italy wasn't the only country. France had regional problems, situation in the UK was pretty dire for a time, Madrid was as overloaded as was New York City, just out of my head.
Measures were different from country to country. In Germany all hospitals were told to reserve a certain percentage of capacity for potential Covid victims and postpone all NON-NECESSARY operations.
The general problem with Covid19 has been, that no one has had it and no one was immune, and depending on how the virus would spread, it was actually possible that the whole population might get infected within the course of a couple of weeks. This is obviously different with something like the flu.
What I can say is that I'm personally rather happy with the way things have been handled in Germany. Sure, it means recession, but it's not the first, and it's finally one for the right reasons.
It was also high time to develop a routine for this kind of threat, since there have been warnings for some time this could happen, but no one really worked out emergency plans until now.
Next time we'll all be a lot wiser.
However, we are not through with this, yet - we'll see what happens in the US and South AMerica, in India and in Africa - and also in Russia. If everything is so clear now, there shouldn't be further problems in the US, at least, right?
|
|
fred79
Disgraceful
Undefeatable Hero
|
|
posted June 21, 2020 06:55 PM |
|
|
Well, if there are, i'm certain people'll blame Trump, and look ridiculous doing so. 
|
|
Minion
Legendary Hero
|
|
posted June 21, 2020 07:31 PM |
|
|
No one looks more ridiculous than some people claiming all media of the world works together in tandem, controlled by some unnamed force, in some for to pave wave for lizard people to take over the flat earth. 
____________
"These friends probably started using condoms after having produced the most optimum amount of offsprings. Kudos to them for showing at least some restraint" - Tsar-ivor
|
|
fred79
Disgraceful
Undefeatable Hero
|
|
posted June 21, 2020 07:35 PM |
|
|
|
Whatever. You live your lives, i'll live mine.
|
|
Drakon-Deus
Undefeatable Hero
Qapla'
|
|
posted June 21, 2020 07:39 PM |
|
|
Minion said:
No one looks more ridiculous than some people claiming all media of the world works together in tandem, controlled by some unnamed force, in some for to pave wave for lizard people to take over the flat earth.
And who claims that? Leaving your poor jokes aside, it's pretty obvious that the media is biased towards the left. If you can't or won't admit it, it's another thing.
I don't even like Trump, but the amount of hate he's getting is so ridiculous, that means he is doing something right that pisses off the leftists. So I hope he wins again. 
____________
Horses don't die on a dog's wish.
|
|
Minion
Legendary Hero
|
|
posted June 21, 2020 07:51 PM |
|
|
@DD. If calling someone out for constantly lying is wrong, then I don't know what you expect media to to actually do?
____________
"These friends probably started using condoms after having produced the most optimum amount of offsprings. Kudos to them for showing at least some restraint" - Tsar-ivor
|
|
Salamandre
Admirable
Omnipresent Hero
Wog refugee
|
|
posted June 21, 2020 08:08 PM |
|
|
|
There is no problem calling out his lies, but there is a problem if half of time you lie about.
|
|
Minion
Legendary Hero
|
|
posted June 21, 2020 08:25 PM |
|
|
I lie half of the time? You have to be joking. About what?
____________
"These friends probably started using condoms after having produced the most optimum amount of offsprings. Kudos to them for showing at least some restraint" - Tsar-ivor
|
|
Salamandre
Admirable
Omnipresent Hero
Wog refugee
|
|
posted June 21, 2020 08:49 PM |
|
|
|
Let's see .... it had to do with this thread's topic, lol?
|
|
Minion
Legendary Hero
|
|
posted June 21, 2020 09:14 PM |
|
|
/facepalm
So you have nothing.  
Considering I have stopped caring about your lies, weather it is "millions of americans voted illegally" or something else that is ENTIRELY fictional, you must be reaching some new levels of delusion lol
____________
"These friends probably started using condoms after having produced the most optimum amount of offsprings. Kudos to them for showing at least some restraint" - Tsar-ivor
|
|
JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
|
|
posted June 21, 2020 10:09 PM |
|
|
|
Still the old levels, I'd say.
|
|
Minion
Legendary Hero
|
|
posted June 21, 2020 10:30 PM |
|
|
|
Yah maybe you are right, but his personal attacks seem more frequent as of late. Maybe I should start calling him Ad Hominem Sal from now on *ponders*. I know he loves nick names.
|
|
Salamandre
Admirable
Omnipresent Hero
Wog refugee
|
|
posted June 22, 2020 08:51 AM |
|
|
|
By "you lie" I meant the medias, as such was the context of your question. But then you took the bait personally so I trolled you. It works every time, Ad minionem.
|
|
Zenofex
Responsible
Legendary Hero
Kreegan-atheist
|
|
posted June 22, 2020 04:43 PM |
|
|
JollyJoker said:
Your sources are not correct. Italy wasn't the only country. France had regional problems, situation in the UK was pretty dire for a time, Madrid was as overloaded as was New York City, just out of my head.
Measures were different from country to country. In Germany all hospitals were told to reserve a certain percentage of capacity for potential Covid victims and postpone all NON-NECESSARY operations.
The general problem with Covid19 has been, that no one has had it and no one was immune, and depending on how the virus would spread, it was actually possible that the whole population might get infected within the course of a couple of weeks. This is obviously different with something like the flu.
What I can say is that I'm personally rather happy with the way things have been handled in Germany. Sure, it means recession, but it's not the first, and it's finally one for the right reasons.
It was also high time to develop a routine for this kind of threat, since there have been warnings for some time this could happen, but no one really worked out emergency plans until now.
Next time we'll all be a lot wiser.
However, we are not through with this, yet - we'll see what happens in the US and South AMerica, in India and in Africa - and also in Russia. If everything is so clear now, there shouldn't be further problems in the US, at least, right?
See, "depending on how the virus would spread" is the most dangerous parts because most of the mathematical models which got sold with prophecy degree of accuracy assumed that it would infect everybody in no time, which is wrong on multiple levels mostly because they all just assumed that the virus is not present among the population at the given time - which turned to be wrong and made all such apocalyptic predictions inaccurate at best. It already was in France in Italy in December, probably in other countries as well, so according to these models there should have been overloaded hospitals 2-3 weeks later. Funny or not, the problems began when the governments started counting the infected/dead part of the population, not when the virus appeared. Even if you assume that everyone got "lucky" and the local start of the epidemic roughly coincides with the time the governments started registering the infections, you still have to explain why you don't have piles of corpses when the countries lifted most of the restrictions AND why there are no piles of corpses in the countries which introduced little-to-no restrictions. So, the "it's not like the flu" in terms of how infectious it is (which most people automatically read as - it's at least twice more infectious) so far has been proven by absolutely nothing. Assuming nobody had an idea if this is not a second Spanish influenza means nobody was paying attention to the reports coming from China, about the age structure and the health status of the victims. One cool story - the head of the commission assigned by our government to handle the situation gave an interview a few weeks before the start of the state of emergency where he was calmly explaining that this new virus is nothing scarier than regular flu and people shouldn't worry about it too much even if it crosses the border - fast-forward several weeks, the government declares state of emergency, that person is assigned to lead the "commission" and shortly after that claims we'll die in droves if we don't X, Y, Z.
Not sure if you're implying that we benefited from the whole thing by "training" for such situations but your assumption that people have got wiser is... bold. People have lost and are losing jobs, weren't allowed to do basic social interactions with other people, had and have their access to healthcare restricted and are taught to treat everyone with suspicion because you don't know from where will the virus hit you - these things are not making anyone wiser. The best part is yet to come but not because of the virus, but because of the sunken economies which pump funds into the healthcare systems among other things.
|
|
JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
|
|
posted June 22, 2020 06:59 PM |
|
|
What you say reads like a conspiracy theory, but it leaves out, how the virus spreads, and that's via air and especially in densely populated closed or semi-closed rooms.
For all we know NOW, face masks and no mass events in halls or stadiums with a roof will keep things under control. THEN, however, we didn't know nothing of that sort.
|
| |
|
|
This thread is pages long: 
