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| Thread: Coronavirus Discussion Thread |  This thread is pages long: 1 ... 7 8 9 10 11 ... 20 23 · «PREV / NEXT» |
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artu
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My BS sensor is tingling again
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posted May 21, 2020 03:50 PM |
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Edited by artu at 15:58, 21 May 2020.
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Well, a quarantine is considered a “state of emergency” so it is not exactly unconstitutional.
But that being said, not every scientist agrees with the policy either. Although they are the minority at the moment, some say that the death rates of the virus is way exaggerated and such a long period lockdown’s economic effects and the poverty it causes will indirectly result in more deaths in the end.
I dont fully agree with this perspective because it fails to explain why so many state-level expert commisions decide to keep applying the lockdown but here it is:
Link
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JollyJoker
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posted May 21, 2020 04:36 PM |
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First of all, it is necessary to see things in perspective. What is know for fact is, that the virus spreads from infected people showing no sysmptoms, either because the virus isn't affecting them at all or isn't affecting them, YET.
What that means, ultimately, is, that it is impossible to avoid infection via testing ALONE. Korea not only was testing massively, they also followed contacts very strictly, but still didn't get things under control.
It also means, that "testing" is not all that important, once the infections have reached a certain amount. You'll simply get thousands of positives each day, and quaranting them isn't changing the big picture because they've already infected a lot more.
It will become added importance again, once there is a dependable "cure" (or at least something that eases the illness to the point where only those die who are nearly dead anyway) AND that cure depends on identifying the infected ASAP.
So it's important to know HOW the infections are spread. The state of knowledge is, that it spreads via air through breathing and everthing that needs breathing (speaking, yelling, singing...): If air is breathed out in "bursts" - speaking, singing, yelling abd so on -, this air is actually an aerosol with small water molecules that contain the virus. These infection molecules stay in the air 10-15 minutes in closed rooms, but also in open rooms, when people are packed. That's why a packed football stadium is bad: everyone's yelling, singing, if there's a goal people cry around, and people are packed, so it spreads.
For that masks HELP. However, they don't solve the problem, since air is still coming out - the spread just follows different patterns.
The next question is - can't we simply leave things their course? Sweden does, why can't we? The Brits and Netherlands tried (and it wasn't good, actually), and I suppose we'll see what happens in Africa and Brazil (nothing good, I'd bet). But the reason why you could see in Italy. Breakdown of the Health system, assisted by medical people getting sick as well, people dying because there is no capacity to treat them, people dying in their homes, undetected (vermin and additional dangers), people fighting for meds and treatment places - the whole unsavory desaster movie scale.
You don't want to reach that point.
So once a certain level of infections has been reached - and this was the case - what helps? Distancing , masks and avoiding things where to are either in close proximity to others and/or cannot wear masks. This is basically the only option and things would have been better, if masks have been made obligatory immediately. Everything else was correct.
I mean, think clearly here. Can you risk that so many people are infected that system relevant elements are not functioning anymore? In OUR society? You cannot risk that in areas with high population density (you could probably have made Sweden a real success, if they had made a lockdown for Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö only). Every bigger city is a problem, every mass event, every location where a lot of people come and go like a fair.
Now. First look at Germany. We have had 8000+ deaths so far, nearing 179.000 officially infected and 158.000 cured. So you can say that at this point 1 died and 20 were cured. In China we have 4.600 dead and nearly 80.000 cured - a bit worse. The question is, how many have been infected, but no symptoms and not been tested therefore?
In the UK you have 250.000 officially infected 36.000 dead and no numbers about any cured. Now. If the 36.000 are supposed to be "5%", then they should have over 700.000 infected already - can you imagine what would happen WITHOUT lockdown?
Now, lastly, the US. 1.550.000 officially infected, 294.000 cured, 93.500 people dead. That leaves around 1.160.000 currently infected (and quarantined). If 5% of those are yet to die, another 60.000 dead will follow. Without lockdown? Uh oh.
So, until there is a reliable cure OR a reliable vaccine (that isn't producing dead), we will continue to wear masks, have big distances between tables and no mass events that can't be done with masks and distance (i.e. football games may get spectators, but not many).
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Neraus
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posted May 21, 2020 05:57 PM |
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JollyJoker said:
But the reason why you could see in Italy. Breakdown of the Health system, assisted by medical people getting sick as well, people dying because there is no capacity to treat them, people dying in their homes, undetected (vermin and additional dangers), people fighting for meds and treatment places - the whole unsavory desaster movie scale.
That didn't happen the way you're describing it, the health system didn't breakdown, despite fears of it happening, except for a sudden surge out of capacity of Lombardy the small number of cases in the rest of the country made it so that those extra cases could and were treated in the other regions of Italy, Sicilian hospitals for example hosted ten or so patients from Bergamo in Lombardy, and even counting all our own cases there were still free spots.
People dying in their homes isn't fully correct, what happened was that to avoid people flocking to hospitals they decided that only those with deadly symptoms would be carried over to be cured to an hospital, to the point of being refused to get tested, until the fever chronicised and became untenable, then they would be hospitalized, to then die in intensive care due to the disease being at a terminal stage.
Aside from the shortage of masks, gloves, disinfectant and certain drugs, there was no fighting for meds, people instead started fashioning masks themselves and made disinfectant at home, and again, they waited for the doctors to tell them if they needed an hospitalization, not that they had a choice.
The real disaster is the economic crisis brought upon by the anti-social and dictatorial lockdown, as the new motto goes: "We've survived the virus, we'll die of starvation"
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ANTUDO
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JollyJoker
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posted May 21, 2020 08:41 PM |
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That is not what I read, and that is not what you can read in the wiki article of covid-19 in Italy..
There was a mass of articles in mid March about the Italian "triage" system forcing Italien doctors to decide who's going to live and who's to die. One out of many.
The economic crisis will be dealth with the same way the last one was dealt with. It*s actually even a chance. On short notice there will be some hardship, but actually our societies can afford this in the 21st century. Actually, it could afford in the 20th as well, considering how much of the economy was destroyed in WW2.
A cynic would point to how Italy was one of the oldest societies (in terms of average age) in Europe and how covid is changing that, with obviously positive effects for the economy .... But that's all small fish.
I mean, you ARE aware that there already is a suggestion of 500 billion as non-repayable emergency fund on the table, right? The key word here is NON-REPAYABLE (as in, gift). You know, money is quite cheap in the 21st century.
Lastly, not the lockdown has been anti-social. You know how it was WITH lockdown. What do you think would be left of Italy now without? Keep in mind that 20% of covid-infections are severe (that is, people are REALLY sick (25% of the really sick dying)). Imagine that. Wait. You don't need to. Just watch Africa, and quite possibly Brazil. Russia and the US, we'll see.
I mean, someone has to pay for sick leave, right? If millions of people are sick, they can't work and have to be paid. That's kind of an economic lockdown as well.
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FirePaladin
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posted May 21, 2020 11:38 PM |
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Have to kinda agree with Salamandre's suggestion with testing, even tho I don't trust my gov at all (they would keep the quarantine forever if possible, tbh). Also with JollyJoker that regular masks are just "dust over the face", mostly.
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Blizzardboy
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Nerf Herder
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posted May 22, 2020 12:18 AM |
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artu said:
Well, a quarantine is considered a “state of emergency” so it is not exactly unconstitutional.
But that being said, not every scientist agrees with the policy either. Although they are the minority at the moment, some say that the death rates of the virus is way exaggerated and such a long period lockdown’s economic effects and the poverty it causes will indirectly result in more deaths in the end.
I dont fully agree with this perspective because it fails to explain why so many state-level expert commisions decide to keep applying the lockdown but here it is:
Link
It is an interesting argument sans the fact that something like COVID can (and already is) shaking up the economic and social order on a worldwide scale to get support where it is needed. The crisis itself is of course horrible but the long-term shift in societal attitudes and policy will (hopefully) be positive.
But it is true that everyday slow and passive killers such as air pollution are worse than COVID.
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Neraus
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posted May 22, 2020 01:11 AM |
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@JJ
Oh you're really in tune with the PD-cucks 500 billion gifted money, what kind of fairytale is that? I suggest you stop using Conte as your dealer, it's bad for your health.
Tell me the why they have a binding repayment plan if they are with no repayment, also, 500 billion? We'd get at most 100 of them, it's an EU wide initiative, not a gift to Italy.
I bet you're going to advise on using the EMS funds like good slaves of Naziland and baguettistan, because "no conditions" despite it being a 1 year clause after which the EMS can easily add new conditions as they see fit (and that's by it's own rules)
The doctors having to decide who lives and dies? That was a prediction they made, in case things went really south, spoiler alert, they didn't, only region that had it harsh was Lombardy, the other epicenter, Veneto, contained it egregiously through a campaign of self produced tests and efficient home triage. Of course in march we were.considering it to be something that'd seriously threaten us, considering the sudden and fast rise of cases.
And the rates? It's 17% at most in Lombardy, for detected cases, Sicily in contrast has a mortality rate of 6%, that is not counting the predicted amount of cases, which is 10 times more, which drops Sicilian mortality to 0,6%.
But yeah, Wikipedia, it's not like every day at 6PM I had to endure the slow trickling progress of what seemed to be the exterminator, oh no, the official declarations are worthless in front of foreigner pundits.
Oh, by the way, Russia, the US, Africa, Brazil, all places with high portions of the population in poverty, where standards of living are low, a cold gets deadly in those situations, when you can't be sure an hospital won't get you sick with some weird pathogen. Oh, forgive me, forgot the average American doesn't even have access to healthcare in the first place.
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Noli offendere Patriam Agathae quia ultrix iniuriarum est.
ANTUDO
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FirePaladin
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posted May 22, 2020 01:20 AM |
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Crap.
And the "treatment locations" like hospitals and stadiums are empty in my country. This is not just taken from the net, but from real-life. At least in that big city I live in (which is among the 5 biggest here) it's like that. And they supposedly don't have doctors for any other affections besides this virus.
I still think laziness is one of the worst and deadliest viruses, as my good ol' teacher said (dang, he is an awesome guy). Not saying this Big Dude over here isn't.
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JollyJoker
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posted May 22, 2020 09:57 AM |
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Aren't you all forgetting that we did have a lockdown? For a purpose? The lockdown should have had an effect, and it had, which is why things are now back to seemingly managable proportions and the lockdown is lifted, step by step.
Reading your posts, you'd think we had the actual situation and NOW a lockdown planned.
I mean, I have no clue whether you all suffer from memory loss, but the situation was pretty dire a couple of months ago, when Italy and Spain were racing for who had more deaths each day. They are at a rate of 1000 each day - what do you think where that would have had spiralled to without the lockdown rules?
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FirePaladin
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posted May 22, 2020 12:21 PM |
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Maybe for other countries, but at me, one of the gov dudes threatened us that he can just put us in lockdown every 30 days just because we dared to protest in our 3 free days ('cus the gov was too late to announce alert state, that's why we even had 3 free days, not because they were merciful). He also said that "he just doesn't understand why we protested", and now obliges people to wear a mask in closed places and be scanned with a thermometer at supermarkets (which, let's be honest, summer is coming, what "correct" results you could get with them). Also to have a "declaration" for anything.
This, while hospitals are empty, doctors leave their job saying they can't accept to lie people about declaring almost any death as from the virus (basically, there are plenty of doctors who said this after leaving the job; I mean, when everyone says this, specialists, what can you do?), etc. At least here at me.
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Enshackling time itself, heralds of the Ancients among their heat-depleted land.... Who could they be, who could rally the beings of the East and the North and control the mortals' fate?
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JollyJoker
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posted May 22, 2020 12:29 PM |
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You left location blank on your personal page - where are you located?
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FirePaladin
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posted May 22, 2020 12:33 PM |
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JollyJoker said:
You left location blank on your personal page - where are you located?
Romania.
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JollyJoker
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posted May 22, 2020 02:30 PM |
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If it's true what you can read about the state of Romania's healthcare system, it's understandable that the officials are most unwilling to let the situation escalate.
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FirePaladin
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posted May 22, 2020 02:39 PM |
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JollyJoker said:
If it's true what you can read about the state of Romania's healthcare system, it's understandable that the officials are most unwilling to let the situation escalate.
What situation to escalate? The people tired of their crap, like over 50% lands being owned by other countries or wood being exported? The guys have sent our expert doctors to other countries, instead of keeping them here. And we have plenty of experts in many domains, but all of them outside our borders, to work for the benefit of other countries.
They even faked a patient with the virus being escorted to the hospital. A dude filmed the medics taking the guy in front of the hospital, then closing their cameras and just letting the guy go away. What escalation of the situation when hospitals are empty (when they are advertised as being the opposite), and covid deaths are being bought from deaths of other cases, through bribery? They even paid the mass-media several millions! When it's supposed to be free and separate from the gov!
And the officials don't even care about the nation or the people, lol. They are just some dirty liars. Not even the prez is romanian.
And if they didn't want the situation to escalate, why they have sent thousands of people inn the middle of the night in Germany to gather some frickin' asparagus?! And then kept them in barracks ~6 people in a small one, for several days, just for germans' asparagus?
The epidemic wasn't even declared officially through law, so the doctors won't get their salaries raised.
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JollyJoker
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posted May 22, 2020 02:56 PM |
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Romanian medical personell leaves the country to work in other countries where they get paid more.
And I don't know what's so difficult to understand - without any measures to keep the virus from spreading it WOULD spread and it would HAVE spread. In Romania, the first severe restrictions came in the 2nd week of March and you went on national lockdown on 24th.
When public gatherings were banned you had 15 known cases. On the 24th of March, when the lockdown was proclaimed, you had 762 officially infected and 12 dead.
In spite of the lockdown, since then another 17.000 have been infected and nearly 1150 more have died - let me repeat, IN SPITE of the lockdown.
So what do you think would have happened without lockdown? And, more to the point, instead of the the 762 on March 24th you have now still nearly 6.000 who are currently infected (not cured or dead). So, why would you end the lockdown completely now? That wouldn't make sense.
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FirePaladin
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posted May 22, 2020 03:04 PM |
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But how many of those dead are actually dead of the virus? And the problem is, they advertise the pandemic filling the hospitals and such, when they are empty.
They even said that 80% of the deaths weren't caused by the virus, but by illnesses like cancer, etc. The experts said it, not just someone from somewhere.
And even so, what restrictions and spreading of the virus bla-bla, when you send thousands to gather ASPARAGUS!? Without masks, without anything. Living for a few days next to each other. This shouldn't have been possible in the gov you're talking about, who is concerned (oh, poor leaders), by our health.
And even in lockdown, elders die from natural cases or other illnesses and doctors can categorize them as dead from the virus, when it's not like that. And this after tens of people reported this happening to their relatives, together with doctors.
And out of 1000+ deaths, taking into account that 80%, only 200 and some more were supposedly dead from the virus. And elders, who were gonna die of old age anyway.
And the tests aren't even accurate. Many people get positive, then negative, and positive again! Until they are freed, eventually.
And at least several TV scenes are faked too.
Btw, there was someone in the gov, who left the mics on before the guys had to start their boring speech. The dudes were annoyed by having to wear a mask, themselves, when saying speech. Then came one of them to say that they have to, 'cus it's closed space, and they have to do it. Those guys are the same who declared lockdown. Now really.
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JollyJoker
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posted May 22, 2020 03:35 PM |
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I think you misunderstand that. It's, like, 80% of the dead also have another disease - like diabetes, cancer and heart problems - but that's not what they died from. Instead the virus took "better" hold.
For example, people who die from influenza don't actually die from "influenza". The influenza gives them a high fever. If, the immune system kills the virus after a couple days, fine, if not, though, eventually the permanent fever will kill you. It may take 10 days, 14 days or even longer, depending on how weak and how old the person is - but they will die. Eventually the permament fever is too much for the body to stand and they die.
Same here. Covid doesn't stop at one organ. The body inflammates the regions to kill the virus with heat, but due to the blood having so much stuff to transport it becomes thicker and builds clots. A sizable part of corona victims died from pulmonary embolism (which is the cause of death), but of course the cause of the embolism is the virus.
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Salamandre
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posted May 22, 2020 03:36 PM |
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The bottom is you can't lockdown before you have tons of dead people, that will just not work and provoke local unrest. Not everybody has sheep mentality, people are very vocal about their rights.
Also this oversimplified mindset "how many would you have saved if earlier" is unrealistic, then lock down everybody and you will get less accidents, less robberies, less crime, less everything, the perfect society.
There is no optimal solution, the virus does not miraculously vanish if you stay home, there will always be places where it survives, for example french ghettos where nobody respected the lockdown. You have to accept the fact that a majority of people get infected then there is mass immunity developing. While waiting for a vaccine.
If our taxes raise now - also with a high percentage of local business having going unemployed - which is highly predictable by majority of economists, you will have a much worse situation on hands than the pandemic. I continue to think the lockdown was a terrible solution. Masks, tests, social distancing and individual responsibility, that was the solution.
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Neraus
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posted May 22, 2020 03:40 PM |
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JollyJoker said:
In spite of the lockdown, since then another 17.000 have been infected and nearly 1150 more have died - let me repeat, IN SPITE of the lockdown.
It's easy to understand why, lockdowns are arguably uneffective if there has been a consistent initial spread, that's what happened here in Italy, if you consider the time it takes for symptoms to arise, it's easy to predict that with a lockdown in a month's time you'll have severely cut new cases.
That's the important lesson that nobody seems to have learned from the Italian experience, we've been on lockdown for two months, now, let me add, since most countries had it easy, we had a dictatorship level of surveillance, sadly it's not an exaggeration if I say we had police in helicopters chasing people taking a stroll on a beach, might I add, alone.
You literally had police checkpoints all accross the country, all ready to stop and fine people even if they had a legitimate reason to be out (they were about to fine even my father, a pharmacist headed to work, because he took a secondary route)
Saying our lockdown allowed the possibility of spread is almost moot... unless...
And here's the kicker, most of the infections happened inside elder care homes, where due to faulty protocols they confined sick elderly without too much supervision, another huge number inside hospitals, again, due to faulty protocols, and lastly, the obvious, inside residences.
Indeed, there was a mantra back then, "these deaths are an indication of who got infected a month ago", which has been disproven by clinical evidence, same goes for the active cases number "it's who got infected two weeks ago".
So how come the numbers were still rising well until April? Despite a month and half of lockdown?
The answer lies in sierological tests, and they found that ten times more people got in contact with the virus, if not more, as of now it has been impossible to carry out more of these tests, old extimations told of 10% of Italy's population got in contact with the virus... Back in late march, in a population of 60 million means 6 million got infected, today, 22nd of May, we have 228k cases.
Obviously, probably they inflated the number, but they still extimate that the real number of infected people is around 10 times higher than the current cases.
@Firepaladin
I mean, our institutions said it quite clearly, they count corona deaths as those who died after being tested positive, if you look at the official data only 3.9% of the deceased had no pre-existing conditions, while around 60% of the deceased had 3 or more pre-existing conditions.
Official study
Quote:
SARS-CoV-2 related deaths presented in this report are those occurring in patients who test positive for
SARS-CoV-2RT by PCR, independently from pre-existing diseases.
The itchy problem is that it's an highly virulent pathogen, so it's easy to catch it, and thus be tested positive despite having no symptoms, or being at death's door and being tested positive.
The question of mortality rates is another chapter entirely that deserves more attention, however, there's also the fact that for a month or more the terminal symptom of pneumonia turned out to not be the issue, but rather disseminated intravascular coagulation, which is treatable with pharmaceuticals already available.
Unfortunately most of the studies our hospitals made in treating the disease are still being validated, but there's also the possibility of deaths and hospitalizations being avoided by successful treatment.
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Noli offendere Patriam Agathae quia ultrix iniuriarum est.
ANTUDO
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FirePaladin
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posted May 22, 2020 03:47 PM |
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@JJ
But you still didn't answer to my gov faking a great part of deaths. I partially agree, but this still remains. And they clearly don't seem to believe in the lockdown and such, with all that a$paragu$ thing.
Plus, hospitals being empty and the gov (mass-media) lying about their situation.
Also, autopsy is banned in many places. Someone who was soon gonna publish his discovery about the virus after an autopsy was found dead the next day (he was a doctor, ofc).
But in the end, I still wonder how true and dangerous the pandemic in my country is, with all the theatre that's happening here.
And those 80% would have died anyway, without the virus.
@Neraus
True enough, the last part. There's a med (which is supposedly a cure to the virus; italian doctors and many other scientists said it) and is now -oh! Missing from everywhere. Something to do with some tree. There was also a report that the med was kept hidden in deposits.
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Enshackling time itself, heralds of the Ancients among their heat-depleted land.... Who could they be, who could rally the beings of the East and the North and control the mortals' fate?
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