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JollyJoker
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posted April 26, 2023 04:19 PM |
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NotBlizzardboy said:
Anyway, imo, Ukraine joining NATO (with some necessary concessions to Russia) is what eventually solves this problem.
Won't happen, though. Because why would Russia even have STARTED a war against Ukraine when that war would end with "Ukraine" becoming a NATO member (meanwhile having the Finns and the Swedes in the NATO as well)? The "war" is on since 2014, since the Crimea annexion, and since then a membership has been actually impossible anyway (not to mention that the NATO members denied that membership in 2008 already once).
So clearly, the war ending with "Ukraine" becoming a NATO member, would basically a loss for Russia, and I'd say that ANY peace Russia would give their ok to would exclude a NATO membership once and for all - (otherwise Russia just needs to cease fighting, but not make peace, which would prevent Ukraine becoming a NATO member).
The only way "Ukraine" can enter NATO would be a severely reduced Ukraine, missing key parts of their country (and not only Crimea and the Donbas).
Which is something the current leadership in the Ukraine would never accept - and rightly so.
So peace is far, far away, because this "special operation" was never based on reasonable grounds, grounds, that could be covered by some reasonable treaty.
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NotBlizzardboy
Hired Hero
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posted April 26, 2023 04:35 PM |
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Putin needs to be given something or he'll never agree to peace. He needs something so that he can say, "Yes, we achieved our goals." If it's more than the Donbass, then it's more than the Donbass. I don't like it either, but it doesn't appear that Ukraine has the ability to drive them out completely, and the culture & politics of Russia means that you can't whittle them down like N. Vietnam did with the USA. People in Russia can't even protest, even though legally they're suppose to be allowed, it doesn't happen in real life. The war can just go on and on.
Ukraine would never agree to concessions right now, but things can change when the tap is turned off and they don't have tons of free stuff anymore. No, it isn't fair for them.
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Ghost
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Therefore I am
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posted April 26, 2023 05:29 PM |
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Welcome to noob club.. This is a noob level..
If the end of Russia will be handled by China. You know Zelensky and Xi were on the phone.. I like so very much..
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JollyJoker
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posted April 26, 2023 07:49 PM |
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NotBlizzardboy said:
Putin needs to be given something or he'll never agree to peace.
He started a war. He is prepared to TAKE what he wants, obviously. Why reward this kind of behavior?
I mean, it's not like the whole world would be and have been at peace the last 75 years. Count the wars the US alone have ACTIVELY been fighting in. And Russia is even NOW. Peace isn't the first item on either Russia's or the US's agenda, and as long as the people dying are Russians and Ukrainians...
I mean, if the money destroyed one way or another would have been used for a positive, a benign purpose ...
As it is, this wil go on until Putin is dethroned one way or another. And it is the correct message to send. History leaves no doubt here.
Is it dangerous for the world? Yup. So? It's already hell for Ukraine and a lot more hellish in some other countries. If we press self-destruct we don't deserve it as a species to survive.
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NotBlizzardboy
Hired Hero
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posted April 26, 2023 07:58 PM |
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JollyJoker said:
He started a war. He is prepared to TAKE what he wants, obviously. Why reward this kind of behavior?
The world after 1945 is very different from the world before 1945.
Deescalating things with a nuclear-armed country is priority #1. The slippery slope problem is indeed a valid argument, as in, if Putin can invade once and get something out of it, then why not invade again? But that issue is resolved through NATO. It's why NATO exists. He can't attack a country in NATO without devastating consequences.
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Ghost
Undefeatable Hero
Therefore I am
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posted April 26, 2023 08:10 PM |
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Euroatlantic! So Taiwan, etc can't join NATO.. A new fact! But Russ1a can't attack us, thus nuked after NATO troops take a country for compensation.. And don't forget Yugoslavia..
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JollyJoker
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posted April 26, 2023 08:39 PM |
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NotBlizzardboy said:
JollyJoker said:
He started a war. He is prepared to TAKE what he wants, obviously. Why reward this kind of behavior?
The world after 1945 is very different from the world before 1945.
Deescalating things with a nuclear-armed country is priority #1.
You didn't understand the doctrine of nuclear deterrence, obviously. But believe me, you are wrong. Just because someone has nuclear weappns no one is hurrying to "deescalate". Instead it's a solid game of poker. Everyone loses when two players go all-in. So the art is to believably communicate the cases in which a party WOULD go all-in - "red lines" that must not be crossed. That makes it necessary to call lots of hands in order to not allow the other side to claim everything a red line. It's a pretty delicate game.
Anyway. Selensky and Xi had a phone call today, and China is full of "territorial integrity". Will be interesting to see what that will amount to in reality.
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NotBlizzardboy
Hired Hero
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posted April 26, 2023 08:46 PM |
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I don't think it's too far-fetched if Russia used a few tactical nukes at some point, as things continue to drag on with little progress.
Seriously, what would/could we do about it? More sanctions, basically.
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JollyJoker
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posted April 26, 2023 10:09 PM |
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You did register the Chinese pleas to avoid nuclear escalation, right? Problem for Russia is, they keep going only because of countries like China, India and the Oil producers. If Russia uses nuclear weapons that would quite probably drastically change.
Of course we can't do anything to avoid ... anything, and if you look at the past not mich HAS been avoided, actually. No matter what anyone DID to avoid it. You know, it's not that different from your usual hostage situation. People who TAKE hostages cannot be trusted and you NEVER fulfill their demands, no matter what, because fulfilling them doesn't guarantee they keep to the bargain.
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NotBlizzardboy
Hired Hero
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posted April 26, 2023 11:45 PM |
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Okay, well I don't feel very comfortable about it, especially now that Putin is in his 70s. I want the war to end. Like, preferably right now, but sooner rather than later. And considering that zero NATO countries have ever been attacked by Russia, I think eventually getting Ukraine in is a pretty solid assurance, or at least the best that we could hope for. If NATO doesn't work, nothing will.
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JollyJoker
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posted April 27, 2023 07:50 AM |
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Again: Ukraine won't join NATO, unless Russia breaks down completely. And THAT would actually be much more pretty freaking dangerous than it's now. That is, PUTIN's Russia.
I seriously believe that Putin must go, before these things can progress. You can't trust him to keep to a signed treaty - after all, he broke enough of them - and he himself wouldn't make any concessions anyway, losing too much face. He has backed himself into a corner and there isn't any way out for him that would not leave him with a desasterous outcome of his politics. Lawrov will have to go as well, I'm afraid.
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Drakon-Deus
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Qapla'
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posted April 27, 2023 08:32 AM |
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Salamandre said:
The diagnostic is willingly wrong in the mainstream. Russia does not want to expand, but secure its borders from a sphere of influence perspective. You don't send a such small force to take out a well trained army, it was a putsch tentative. It didn't work, they went for negotiating.
And then the US grasped the opportunity to weaken Russia as a whole and fuel a massive scale war, doubled by a senseless propaganda destined to dehumanize the adversary - Putin is crazy and a psychopath, he has 5 cancers and flat feet, next door Russian is a propaganda driven zombie, they are all rapists, assassins, war criminals and Hitler grandsons. Our puppet politicians and corrupted medias followed as well, like when you try to please the big bully in the classroom.
I am NOT saying this is our fault, but responsibilities are definitely shared. When you know history and how political coups in that area multiplied over years - from both sides, you know what's at play.
Quite true But most people are not fond of the truth, they prefer to believe comfortable lies.
However much you deny the truth, the truth goes on existing. 
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Horses don't die on a dog's wish.
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JollyJoker
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posted April 27, 2023 09:51 AM |
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And a dog turd keeps being a dog turd however much you declare it to be a sausage.
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Ghost
Undefeatable Hero
Therefore I am
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posted April 27, 2023 10:07 AM |
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Worse you can't take a sausage back, when dog shows teeth.. So dog owns sausage..
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Salamandre
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posted April 27, 2023 11:24 AM |
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NotBlizzardboy said:
Okay? So a vacuum in the usual energy supply means US natural gas makes big profits in Europe.
So how does that translate to Russia invading Ukraine? I don't get it. Seriously, I want to understand you. Teach me.
I can't teach you to think by yourself, it is an individual effort to be done. First you affirm US has only to lose because of the war, which is laughable when we take a look at 2022 energy exports, basically replacing Russia. The profit is insane, to quote economists.
You also affirm Russia covers heavy loses, which is the nonsense directly coming from Radio Ukraine, why would they tell anything else to get the goodies.
I won't send you to Mediazona, which basically gives the weekly updated information on Russia casualties - age, rank and army corp, the only media which DOES thorough investigation on what's going on, but let you reach a logical conclusion on how both sides acted and by that grasp the causality concept.
One side mobilized 10 times, up to 1 million military and is now violently catching 15 yo in the streets, while the other mobilized one time, up to 400 000 and let several hundreds of thousands quit the country if they didn't want to fight. One side is keeping begging for weapons in every country it steps in, the other doesn't care. So, who would you think is experiencing heavy loses and material attrition, a or b?
People pushing the military belligerency don't get it that this will end by Ukraine men power being totally annihilated, and the whole country with. It won't matter if it joins NATO later, as a ghost country which will need thousands of years and billions of dollars to rebirth.
The only way to stop this war is make alliance with China, this is how Geopolitics work. But no, we add mistake after mistake and now criticizing China because peanuts.
And before yelling this is nonsense, explain me how the current strategy, which you support at 100%, gave any positive results.
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JollyJoker
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posted April 27, 2023 12:52 PM |
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More nonsense. And false information.
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angelito
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posted April 27, 2023 06:02 PM |
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Edited by angelito at 18:06, 27 Apr 2023.
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Alliance with China?
You really think this can ever happen?
Sorry, but I have no idea what has to be done to bring China and the western world under one belt. The view on the world and how the powers have to be regulated between the top nations are sooo different, there is close to zero room for negotiations in my opinion.
And as long as the Taiwan problem is present, there will never be any arrangements on other issues, that is for sure.
If Putin and Lawrow (and this crazy guy Medwejew) leave the stage, there might be an chance for peace...as long as any of these 3 has a position to give heavily orders, ...no end in sight...
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NotBlizzardBoy
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posted April 27, 2023 06:34 PM |
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@Sal
Everything you said is made up. I'm not going to respond to you anymore.
@Angelito
There's also the fact that large numbers of more progressive young men have fled the country, which further lowers the odds of a cooperative Russia in the future.
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Salamandre
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posted April 27, 2023 06:48 PM |
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Everything I put on, US profit, mobilizations, army sizes, casualties are sourced everywhere. I wonder what medias you listen to dare saying I am inventing things. Prove it or indeed shut up.
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Ghost
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Therefore I am
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posted April 27, 2023 06:56 PM |
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This Popular Thread is pages long: 
