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TheDeath
Responsible
Undefeatable Hero
with serious business
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posted July 09, 2008 05:48 PM |
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Quote: But yes, probability for getting at least 1 lucky shot is 75%! I don't think anyone is denying that, but just considering that Master Hunters do half of their total damage in one shot. Getting Luck on 1 shot alone doen't double all of their damage, that happens only when they get Luck at both shots (25% change)
You explained it very well and without calculations so I hope he gets it this time.
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atheist
Hired Hero
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posted July 09, 2008 05:51 PM |
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Edited by atheist at 17:56, 09 Jul 2008.
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Quote:
But yes, probability for getting at least 1 lucky shot is 75%! I don't think anyone is denying that, but just considering that Master Hunters do half of their total damage in one shot. Getting Luck on 1 shot alone doen't double all of their damage, that happens only when they get Luck at both shots (25% change)
This is EXACTLY what I was talking about. The chance for 1 lucky strike is more then 50%!
If you read all post you will see that Alciades argued that the chance for 150% ( 1 lucky shot ) is only 50% !
I only wanted to point that out and The Death totally flamed me for nothing!
Edit : Look : a few post ago this is what i wrote , same thing as u.
Quote: So in your example above for the Master Hunter, If he has 5 luck he will have 50% chance for 1 luck trigger With only one strikeBut he has 2 strikes, and the overall chance for 150% damage ( 1 trigger out of 2 ) , is higher then 50% , probably something like 70%
I DO agree that MH needs both shots lucky to equal AA's lucky damage! I never said otherwise!
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Doomforge
Admirable
Undefeatable Hero
Retired Hero
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posted July 09, 2008 05:53 PM |
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yes, but the average luck damage evens out. You can't say different formulas with the same outcome favor Master Hunters Apples vs. oranges, obviously.
Anyway, back to the original topic: Yes, Arcane Archers offer a bit too much. There is a point in it, though. Such a strong shooting unit makes the faction easier to play for non-experts. Since Sylvan has no warmachine specialist or a good starter mage, it is hard for beginners not to get overwhelmed. AAs help here. A bit
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TheDeath
Responsible
Undefeatable Hero
with serious business
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posted July 09, 2008 05:54 PM |
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Quote: This is EXACTLY what I was talking about. The chance for 1 lucky strike is more then 50%!
Yes but the chance for two lucky shots is LOWER, so it is not better in any case.
Quote: I only wanted to point that out and The Death totally flamed me for nothing!
If you read MY posts you will see that I said that MH have higher chance of doing semi-lucky shots, but lower chance for a full-lucky shot (GOOD and BAD, cancel each other, remember?).
So basically I was not "flaming" you for that, I was arguing over the fact that they are not "more lucky" or that luck isn't better in Master Hunters' case. There, done.
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Minion
Legendary Hero
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posted July 09, 2008 06:20 PM |
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Quote: So in your example above for the Master Hunter, If he has 5 luck he will have 50% chance for 1 luck trigger With only one strikeBut he has 2 strikes, and the overall chance for 150% damage ( 1 triggers out of 2 ) , is higher then 50% , probably something like 70%
Small correction. The change to hit exactly 150% damage (1 trigger out of 2) is 50%! But the change to hit either 150% or 200% is 75%
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"These friends probably started using condoms after having produced the most optimum amount of offsprings. Kudos to them for showing at least some restraint" - Tsar-ivor
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TheDeath
Responsible
Undefeatable Hero
with serious business
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posted July 09, 2008 06:45 PM |
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Exactly, so to eliminate the confusion, when I said in my previous posts one lucky shot (chance > 50%), I meant at least one lucky shot...
I don't know if that's what caused the confusion though, as he quoted a post where it said "at least" so...
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The above post is subject to SIRIOUSness.
No jokes were harmed during the making of this signature.
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Fauch
Responsible
Undefeatable Hero
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posted July 09, 2008 06:50 PM |
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at close range, for which defense do MH and AA deal the same damage ? :
I consider that the enemy defense is higher than the elf attack, even after the 50% reduction (because, there are 2 different formulas for the calcul of damage)
formula used : average damage * number of shots * initiative : (1 + (enemy defense * percentage of defense not ignored - elf attack) * 0.05)
6.5 * 2 : (1 + (enemy defense - 5) * 0.05) = 8.5 * 1.1 : (1 + (enemy defense : 2 - 6) * 0.05)
13 : (0.05 * enemy defense + 0.75) = 9.35 : (0.05 * enemy defense : 2 + 0.7)
13 * (0.05 * enemy defense : 2 + 0.7) = 9.35 * (0.05 * enemy defense + 0.75)
0.65 * enemy defense : 2 + 9.1 = 0.4675 * enemy defense + 7.0125
0.325 * enemy defense + 9.1 = 0.4675 * enemy defense + 7.0125
0.325 * enemy defense + 2.0875 = 0.4675 * enemy defense
(0.325 * enemy defense + 2.0875) : 0.4675 = enemy defense
0.325 : 0.4675 * enemy defense + 2.0875 : 0.4675 = enemy defense
2.0875 : 0.4675 = enemy defense - 0.325 : 0.4675 * enemy defense
2.0875 : 0.4675 = enemy defense * (1 - 0.325 : 0.4675)
enemy defense = (2.0875 : 0.4675) : (1 - 0.325 : 0.4675)
14 < enemy defense < 15
without any bonuses and without range penalty, MH and AA deal the same damage per turn in average against an enemy with about 14.65 defense.
(note that it will be different if you compare the damage done per attack. it won't change much things here, but if you compare treant damage to emerald dragon damage, for example, you have to keep in mind that the emerald dragon acts twice as often as the treant, which makes a huge difference)
6.5 * 2 : (1 + (14.65 - 5) * 0.05) = 8.77
8.5 * 1.1 : (1 + (14.65 : 2 - 6) * 0.05) = 8.77
I hope I made no mistake...
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Doomforge
Admirable
Undefeatable Hero
Retired Hero
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posted July 09, 2008 07:19 PM |
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You know guys, beside math and formulas, there is common sense, which says AA is better. Why? Because it suits sylvan's style better. Sylvan is the first turn faction. Your units strike first and are at the other side of the battlefield in their first move. The whole battle gets solved there. So, a unit that a) acts faster b) can shoot without penalty will be always better, no matter if it has better damage or not, obviously because you will rarely (or NEVER) have a chance to actually attack units within range. Enemies will focus on your units on their side of the battlefield and will be far enough to make no range penalty priceless. If they decide to wipe out AAs, they will either use a unit that can cross the battlefield instantly, or use a spell to do so, so those units have three possibilites: be blocked/ be dead/ shoot at full distance. You can't help the first two possibilities, but for the third, AAs are better. End of story
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radar
Responsible
Legendary Hero
Castle/Haven player
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posted July 09, 2008 07:40 PM |
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It's about the reduced defence anyway, because two broken shots are equal of one at full range.
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Isabel
Known Hero
Dragonblessed
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posted July 10, 2008 03:52 AM |
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Edited by Isabel at 03:53, 10 Jul 2008.
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What a debate, is it settled? Actually the point of this thread is not about Luck rolls
It doesn't matter about the probability of luck strikes, we just have to know that Arcane archers are general much better than Master Hunters.
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espen15
Famous Hero
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posted July 10, 2008 06:12 AM |
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Quote: What a debate, is it settled? Actually the point of this thread is not about Luck rolls
It doesn't matter about the probability of luck strikes, we just have to know that Arcane archers are general much better than Master Hunters.
exactly or ishould change thread name luck rolls or luck triggers, i just wanted to know as neutral is arcane archer overpowered or not.
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forest001
Known Hero
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posted July 10, 2008 10:06 AM |
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Quote: ... i just wanted to know as neutral is arcane archer overpowered or not.
if you are unlucky or have problems with ranged creeps they can be a pain! but they are not so overpowered like death knights are.
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Elvin
Admirable
Omnipresent Hero
Endless Revival
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posted July 10, 2008 10:14 AM |
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I'd say on the contrary. To deal with archers you normally want:
Archers yourself that can preferably shoot first 11 initiative is only matched by centaurs.
A means to resurrect your units that is usually not there.
Confusion, ballista or destructive but the chances are not in your favour if you want to act first.
A tank that can take some punishment. Even so unless the unit is a tier 7 it's possible that you will lose something.
Note that things are not that bleak as I present them but usually tackling them week 1-2 is a huge risk.
Btw have I told you that necro rocks? Lvl 5 Naadir with about 150 skeleton archers against 27 arcanes, zero casualties.
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Lexxan
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
Unimpressed by your logic
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posted July 10, 2008 10:21 AM |
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The key is Swift Mind (maybe with Warlock's Luck). And of course Expert Slow/Confusion (and better Confusion, for obvious reasons) or Expert Ressurrection or Expert Raise Dead (for undead; Lich Masters do fine as well) as your spells.
But I guess saying this is a bit redundant
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Coincidence? I think not!!!!
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Elvin
Admirable
Omnipresent Hero
Endless Revival
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posted July 10, 2008 10:25 AM |
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Well each faction has his strengths, the thing is that factions like haven/sylvan that depend on might will have trouble whereas dungeon/necro and probably dwarves(wish some destructive and shieldguards ) will laugh at the challenge.
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Lexxan
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
Unimpressed by your logic
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posted July 10, 2008 10:31 AM |
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Right, but Sylvan and Haven have acces to deflect Missile, Divine Vengeance, Resurrection, Endurance, Haste, all good spells versus Arcanes. Usually 2 or 3 of these will pop up in the Mage guild (but that's still no guarantee). I also forgot to mention "First Aid" as a good persk versus Arcanes (for Sylvan, Stronghold and Haven, if they can get it)
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Coincidence? I think not!!!!
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Elvin
Admirable
Omnipresent Hero
Endless Revival
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posted July 10, 2008 10:32 AM |
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When, week 1-2? It could happen
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alcibiades
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
of Gold Dragons
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posted July 10, 2008 10:38 AM |
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Quote:
Quote: But yes, probability for getting at least 1 lucky shot is 75%! I don't think anyone is denying that, but just considering that Master Hunters do half of their total damage in one shot. Getting Luck on 1 shot alone doen't double all of their damage, that happens only when they get Luck at both shots (25% change)
This is EXACTLY what I was talking about. The chance for 1 lucky strike is more then 50%!
If you read all post you will see that Alciades argued that the chance for 150% ( 1 lucky shot ) is only 50% !
Sorry, but don't quote me for doing my math wrong just because you don't understand it.
I said:
Chance for 0 Lucky Strikes (100 % damage) = 25 %.
Chance for 1 Lucky Strike (150 % damage) = 50 %.
Chance for 2 Lucky Strikes (200 % damage) = 25 %.
What you claim I said is that Chance(Damage > 100 %) = 50 %, which is obviously not what I said, I said Chance(Damage = 150 %) = 50 %, but obviously, if you add up the numbers, Chance(Damage > 100 %) = 75 % from my calculations also.
Go back and check the numbers if you still don't understand it.
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What will happen now?
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Fauch
Responsible
Undefeatable Hero
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posted July 10, 2008 12:56 PM |
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Quote:
but they are not so overpowered like death knights are.
new debate : black knight underpowered and death knight overpowered!
(seriously, black knights are VERY bad for a level 6)
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TheDeath
Responsible
Undefeatable Hero
with serious business
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posted July 10, 2008 01:51 PM |
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Quote: but they are not so overpowered like death knights are.
Death Knights are tier 6
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The above post is subject to SIRIOUSness.
No jokes were harmed during the making of this signature.
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